๐ BTC economic news bulletin โ morning of 30/08/2026
Overall assessment: ๐ Neutral leaning Risk-Off โ Macro Score: 53/100. I slightly lowered it from 55 โ 53/100. After Jackson Hole, the bad picture has been confirmed more clearly: the probability that the Fed will raise rates in September is around 55.7โ60%, the DXY rose to 99.71, the 2Y/10Y yields surged higher, and the Bitcoin ETF on 28/8 closed with net outflows of -$201.9 million. BTC therefore faces clear downward pressure.
Fed & interest rates: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed will still have โwork to doโ if itโs not confident that inflation is returning to the 2% target at a fast enough pace. After his speech, the market raised the probability of a September rate hike to 55.7% from 35.4% the day before; Reuters also described the pricing as around 60%. This remains the biggest headwind for risk assets.
Inflation: July PCE is still around 3.7% YoY, and Warsh said recent data hasnโt shown a meaningful improvement in underlying inflation. As long as the Fed keeps the 2% target โrigid,โ the likelihood of rate cuts in the short term is almost no longer the main story; instead, the market is now pricing in the possibility of additional rate hikes.
US Jobs: The Fed believes the labor market remains stable, economic growth is still resilient, and financial conditions have not shown that current policy is overly restrictive. This means the Fed doesnโt yet face pressure to rescue growthโallowing them to continue prioritizing fighting inflation. The August jobs data will be the next major milestone in early September.
DXY: The Dollar Index jumped +0.61% to 99.71, the strongest daily increase in about 2.5 months. This step is clearly worse than the 98โ99 zone from last week. DXY is still not above 100, but itโs very close; if it firmly breaks 100, pressure on BTC would increase significantly.
Bond yields: The hawkish reaction showed up most clearly in the 2Y: up nearly 12.8 bp to 4.36%. 10Y is up about 5.6 bp to 4.728%, and 30Y up about 5.213%. This combination is not good for BTC because both the cost of capital and the risk-free yield rise together. If 10Y breaks back above the 4.75โ4.80% area, Iโll treat it as a stronger Risk-Off step.
Liquidity: The Treasury continues its program to buy long-term bonds, so at the system level there is still a layer of liquidity support. However, this effect is being overshadowed by the Fed staying hawkish and yields rising. Therefore, I no longer consider liquidity a strong positive; itโs only a factor that slightly reduces pressure, not a reversal of the environment.
Oil: This is still a rare bright spot. WTI closed around $83.40, Brent $89.31โboth down slightly during the session. Oil also logged its first weekly decline in three weeks. Oil prices below $90โ91 help reduce the risk of energy-driven inflation, so I havenโt lowered the Macro Score to a strong Risk-Off zone below 50.
Bitcoin ETF: Farside data has been finalized for 28/8: -$201.9 million, worse than the preliminary -$168.5M from the previous version. Notably, ARKB withdrew -$114.9M, BITB -$49.7M, and IBIT -$33.4M. Earlier on 27/8 it was +$242.3M. This means institutional fund flows reversed from strong inflows to strong outflows right after the Fed hawkish moveโthis is a signal I consider very important.
BTC: During the Jackson Hole reaction session, Bitcoin fell 3.34% to about $77,414 according to Reuters. Notably, BTC had tried to hold the 80K area but was pushed down when USD + yields + expectations of higher rate hikes all moved up together. At this point, this is no longer a crypto-specific shakeout; thereโs a fairly clear macro cause.
Compared with the 29/08 version
The clearest downside is that the ETF confirmation came in at -$201.9M instead of the preliminary -$168.5M, the DXY is up close to 100, and the 10Y yield has turned back up to 4.728%. Expectations that the Fed will raise rates also remain in the 55โ60% range, so yesterdayโs hawkish move has not yet been โdigestedโ by the market.
The main positive point is still oil below $90 and Treasury liquidity not disappearing.
So Iโm lowering the Macro Score from 55 to 53/100.
๐ฏ Conclusion for the multi-timeframe RSI system
With your system, during this period I will prioritize the 1Dโ3Dโ1W timeframes above all other rebound signals from 30Mโ4H.
If the lower timeframe bounces but 1D remains weak, the ETF keeps seeing outflows, DXY breaks above 100, and 10Y goes above 4.75โ4.80%, then it shouldnโt be considered a strong LONG signal.
On the other hand, if BTC can hold the larger timeframe structure despite this bad macro backdrop, and then reclaim 80Kโ82K with strong closing candles, while the ETF turns positive and yields fall, that would be very strong evidence that the market has fully absorbed the Fedโs hawkish shock.
