#美联储9月加息概率升至57%
September rate hike odds reach 57%. What’s truly being repriced isn’t the interest rate itself, but liquidity.
In his speech at Jackson Hole this time, Wosh didn’t directly announce that September would definitely see a rate hike, but the market could already clearly hear the “hawkish” tone.
Federal funds futures show that the probability of a rate hike in September jumped rapidly from around 35% before the speech to roughly 57%. The yields on 2-year U.S. Treasuries also rose to a one-month high.
This number itself isn’t that important.
What matters is why the market suddenly changed its stance.
Earlier, everyone was discussing rate cuts, easing, and risk assets continuing their frenzy—yet now it suddenly becomes:
Inflation hasn’t been fully brought down, and financial conditions are still somewhat loose—so shouldn’t we keep tightening?
Once that logic takes hold, the first to suffer are usually assets that tell stories based on “future growth.”
Tech stock valuations will be recalculated; the carrying cost of holding gold and silver will be recalculated; and even BTC’s liquidity premium will have to be recalculated too.
So I think the most dangerous thing right now isn’t that “a rate hike in September is certain,” but that the market has already begun trading as if the world is one where hikes are happening.
Next, U.S. employment and inflation data are the real test. If the data continue to run hot, the 57% could be only the starting point. If the data clearly weaken, this hawkish outlook could quickly recede.
In fact, the market is now betting on these data releases.
What trading fears most is when expectations suddenly turn.
And this time, the turn has already happened.
September rate hike odds reach 57%. What’s truly being repriced isn’t the interest rate itself, but liquidity.
In his speech at Jackson Hole this time, Wosh didn’t directly announce that September would definitely see a rate hike, but the market could already clearly hear the “hawkish” tone.
Federal funds futures show that the probability of a rate hike in September jumped rapidly from around 35% before the speech to roughly 57%. The yields on 2-year U.S. Treasuries also rose to a one-month high.
This number itself isn’t that important.
What matters is why the market suddenly changed its stance.
Earlier, everyone was discussing rate cuts, easing, and risk assets continuing their frenzy—yet now it suddenly becomes:
Inflation hasn’t been fully brought down, and financial conditions are still somewhat loose—so shouldn’t we keep tightening?
Once that logic takes hold, the first to suffer are usually assets that tell stories based on “future growth.”
Tech stock valuations will be recalculated; the carrying cost of holding gold and silver will be recalculated; and even BTC’s liquidity premium will have to be recalculated too.
So I think the most dangerous thing right now isn’t that “a rate hike in September is certain,” but that the market has already begun trading as if the world is one where hikes are happening.
Next, U.S. employment and inflation data are the real test. If the data continue to run hot, the 57% could be only the starting point. If the data clearly weaken, this hawkish outlook could quickly recede.
In fact, the market is now betting on these data releases.
What trading fears most is when expectations suddenly turn.
And this time, the turn has already happened.
