🚨 TRUMP INSIDER GAVE ME THE JOB DATA — $BTC $60K OR $100K? READ THIS NOW
$BTC $60K or $100K?
Yes, I'm putting both on the table because the August jobs report could seriously change the current macro setup.
I spent around 1.5 hours going through the latest live employment trackers, high-frequency labor data, prediction markets, analyst estimates and recent surveys, then combined everything into my own model.
👉 My current estimate:
NFP: ~55K
Unemployment: 4.2%
Wages: +0.2% MoM / ~3.0%-3.2% YoY
The labor market is looking more like low-hire, low-fire right now. Hiring has slowed sharply, but layoffs and jobless claims are still relatively low. So I don't see a clear labor-market collapse, but I also don't see strong hiring momentum.
Current market expectations are roughly 45K-75K NFP, around 4.2% unemployment and +0.2% monthly wages, so my estimate sits close to the middle.
But I care much more about the combination than NFP alone:
NFP + unemployment + wages + revisions.
For example, 55K NFP + 4.2% unemployment + 0.2% wages would look meaningfully softer and could give BTC some relief.
But 55K + 4.1% unemployment + 0.4% wages could still be bearish because Warsh has already made inflation the Fed's main concern.
So weak jobs + rising unemployment + cooling wages could be bullish for $BTC . Strong jobs + sticky wages could bring another wave of pressure.
That's why I think the next few weeks could decide whether BTC gets a real path toward $100K or starts facing deeper downside toward $60K.
And guys, before anyone takes the title literally, the "Trump insider" part is just the joke. I don't have confidential government data. Everything here comes from public trackers, surveys, prediction markets, analyst estimates and my own model.
Really, this took me around 1.5 hours to complete properly, so if you found it useful, follow Meow. You probably won't find this kind of early preparation and data-backed jobs setup everywhere.
And guys, comment anything if you found this helpful.
#USShortTermTreasuryYieldsJump #USNonFarmPayrollReport
$BTC $60K or $100K?
Yes, I'm putting both on the table because the August jobs report could seriously change the current macro setup.
I spent around 1.5 hours going through the latest live employment trackers, high-frequency labor data, prediction markets, analyst estimates and recent surveys, then combined everything into my own model.
👉 My current estimate:
NFP: ~55K
Unemployment: 4.2%
Wages: +0.2% MoM / ~3.0%-3.2% YoY
The labor market is looking more like low-hire, low-fire right now. Hiring has slowed sharply, but layoffs and jobless claims are still relatively low. So I don't see a clear labor-market collapse, but I also don't see strong hiring momentum.
Current market expectations are roughly 45K-75K NFP, around 4.2% unemployment and +0.2% monthly wages, so my estimate sits close to the middle.
But I care much more about the combination than NFP alone:
NFP + unemployment + wages + revisions.
For example, 55K NFP + 4.2% unemployment + 0.2% wages would look meaningfully softer and could give BTC some relief.
But 55K + 4.1% unemployment + 0.4% wages could still be bearish because Warsh has already made inflation the Fed's main concern.
So weak jobs + rising unemployment + cooling wages could be bullish for $BTC . Strong jobs + sticky wages could bring another wave of pressure.
That's why I think the next few weeks could decide whether BTC gets a real path toward $100K or starts facing deeper downside toward $60K.
And guys, before anyone takes the title literally, the "Trump insider" part is just the joke. I don't have confidential government data. Everything here comes from public trackers, surveys, prediction markets, analyst estimates and my own model.
Really, this took me around 1.5 hours to complete properly, so if you found it useful, follow Meow. You probably won't find this kind of early preparation and data-backed jobs setup everywhere.
And guys, comment anything if you found this helpful.
#USShortTermTreasuryYieldsJump #USNonFarmPayrollReport
