๐จ๐ฅ Surprise guide to flip interest-rate expectations in minutes! ๐บ๐ธ๐ฅ
While Federal Chairman Kevin Warsh was delivering his speech in Jackson Hole, the market-implied odds of a rate hike jumped from:
๐ 30% โฌ ๏ธ 57%
Meaning that during the very same speech, the market moved from viewing a rate hike as a less-likely scenario to pricing it with a probability exceeding 50%.
Why? Warshโs message came more hawkish than expected:
๐น Inflation is still elevated.
๐น The 2% target remains unchanged.
๐น The job market is still strong.
๐น Financial conditions are not tight.
๐น And the Federal Reserve still has work to finish the fight against inflation.
๐ฅ This isnโt just talk... the market repriced the rate path directly while Warsh was speaking.
๐ From 30% to 57% in a single speech... Jackson Hole quickly changed market expectations.
While Federal Chairman Kevin Warsh was delivering his speech in Jackson Hole, the market-implied odds of a rate hike jumped from:
๐ 30% โฌ ๏ธ 57%
Meaning that during the very same speech, the market moved from viewing a rate hike as a less-likely scenario to pricing it with a probability exceeding 50%.
Why? Warshโs message came more hawkish than expected:
๐น Inflation is still elevated.
๐น The 2% target remains unchanged.
๐น The job market is still strong.
๐น Financial conditions are not tight.
๐น And the Federal Reserve still has work to finish the fight against inflation.
๐ฅ This isnโt just talk... the market repriced the rate path directly while Warsh was speaking.
๐ From 30% to 57% in a single speech... Jackson Hole quickly changed market expectations.