Crypto | Tomorrow’s Prediction | Aug 30
On the weekend, ETH led the plunge—can the 76853 line hold?
I just finished scanning the data, and my palms are a bit sweaty. Tonight’s wave is all green—none of the majors look good. ETH leads the drop at -2.64%. Intraday, it gets smashed from 2511 down to 2403, down nearly 110 dollars. BTC falls along at -2.1%, getting knocked back from 79566 to 77894, dipping as low as 76853. SOL is relatively more defensive, down only 0.92%, briefly touching around 102.
First my take: bearish, but not chasing shorts in the short term. Here’s why.
From a technical perspective, BTC is stuck in a very awkward spot—79566 is the intraday rebound high, and 76853 is the intraday low. The 78000 psychological level has already broken. What remains is the final line at 76853. If liquidity is thin over the weekend and we leak another needle lower, the next hard support to catch is likely in the 75000–75500 area. ETH looks even worse—once the 2400 psychological level is lost, the market opens up a vacuum toward 2350–2300. I’m relatively more optimistic on SOL: 102 hasn’t broken, bulls are still holding. But don’t expect a risk-on pullback against the trend like on Friday night.
As for funding, there are a few signals worth noting. In the slow grind 24h leaderboard, ONT’s funding rate is -0.0018, with a negative depth value—this suggests shorts are extremely crowded. Ironically, that’s when you should be more careful about a rebound raid. Similarly, MINA’s funding rate at -0.00019 is also a short-paying structure. There’s also SUSDT, which has formed three higher lows. The slow grind score is 76—this is a reversal structure I quite like. But whether it works still depends on the overall market tone.
For unusual-move signals, FLOCK’s volume ratio has surged to 38.8x, and MANTRA is up to 20.5x. When volume ratios spike like this, there’s usually a story on-chain. But I need to remind you: system data tells us that in the past, when false breakouts occur, the average initial upside is 14%, and after 1 hour, 78% of them retrace. So when you see the volume ratio explode, don’t rush—confirm whether it’s a real breakout or just a pump-and-dump.
Also check the losers list. HUMA is down 21%, but the traded value is only 290k. Low-volume selloffs like this often produce wick-and-retrace behavior, so dip-buyers can observe, but don’t go heavy.
On strategy, my suggestion is: over the weekend, focus mainly on observing. If BTC can truly hold 76853 without breaking it, and there’s a clear intraday (4-hour) volume contraction followed by a stabilization signal, you can try a small long position on Monday. If 76853 breaks with heavy volume, don’t fantasize—flip and look toward 75000 instead. For ETH, don’t touch it for now—wait until it works out its own base under 2400. For SOL, if it can hold above 102, you can try a small long; if it breaks 100, cut the loss.
As for the event side, tomorrow is Saturday—no major macro data. The real test is early September’s Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI. The Fed’s September mid-month rate decision is also hanging over everyone’s head like a blade. Main funds are likely waiting and watching right now—no one wants to move first when the direction is unclear.
Lastly, one more thing: I never call trades, and I don’t charge for anything. Writing this is just my trading plan made public for the sake of record-keeping and later review. Tomorrow’s market could be completely different—76853 could break through in an instant, and if 102 gets lost, it can disappear just as fast. Predictions are predictions; the market is always right.
What do you think? Are you planning to hold through the night on the weekend, or move out first and observe? Feel free to discuss your trading approach in the comments.
On the weekend, ETH led the plunge—can the 76853 line hold?
I just finished scanning the data, and my palms are a bit sweaty. Tonight’s wave is all green—none of the majors look good. ETH leads the drop at -2.64%. Intraday, it gets smashed from 2511 down to 2403, down nearly 110 dollars. BTC falls along at -2.1%, getting knocked back from 79566 to 77894, dipping as low as 76853. SOL is relatively more defensive, down only 0.92%, briefly touching around 102.
First my take: bearish, but not chasing shorts in the short term. Here’s why.
From a technical perspective, BTC is stuck in a very awkward spot—79566 is the intraday rebound high, and 76853 is the intraday low. The 78000 psychological level has already broken. What remains is the final line at 76853. If liquidity is thin over the weekend and we leak another needle lower, the next hard support to catch is likely in the 75000–75500 area. ETH looks even worse—once the 2400 psychological level is lost, the market opens up a vacuum toward 2350–2300. I’m relatively more optimistic on SOL: 102 hasn’t broken, bulls are still holding. But don’t expect a risk-on pullback against the trend like on Friday night.
As for funding, there are a few signals worth noting. In the slow grind 24h leaderboard, ONT’s funding rate is -0.0018, with a negative depth value—this suggests shorts are extremely crowded. Ironically, that’s when you should be more careful about a rebound raid. Similarly, MINA’s funding rate at -0.00019 is also a short-paying structure. There’s also SUSDT, which has formed three higher lows. The slow grind score is 76—this is a reversal structure I quite like. But whether it works still depends on the overall market tone.
For unusual-move signals, FLOCK’s volume ratio has surged to 38.8x, and MANTRA is up to 20.5x. When volume ratios spike like this, there’s usually a story on-chain. But I need to remind you: system data tells us that in the past, when false breakouts occur, the average initial upside is 14%, and after 1 hour, 78% of them retrace. So when you see the volume ratio explode, don’t rush—confirm whether it’s a real breakout or just a pump-and-dump.
Also check the losers list. HUMA is down 21%, but the traded value is only 290k. Low-volume selloffs like this often produce wick-and-retrace behavior, so dip-buyers can observe, but don’t go heavy.
On strategy, my suggestion is: over the weekend, focus mainly on observing. If BTC can truly hold 76853 without breaking it, and there’s a clear intraday (4-hour) volume contraction followed by a stabilization signal, you can try a small long position on Monday. If 76853 breaks with heavy volume, don’t fantasize—flip and look toward 75000 instead. For ETH, don’t touch it for now—wait until it works out its own base under 2400. For SOL, if it can hold above 102, you can try a small long; if it breaks 100, cut the loss.
As for the event side, tomorrow is Saturday—no major macro data. The real test is early September’s Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI. The Fed’s September mid-month rate decision is also hanging over everyone’s head like a blade. Main funds are likely waiting and watching right now—no one wants to move first when the direction is unclear.
Lastly, one more thing: I never call trades, and I don’t charge for anything. Writing this is just my trading plan made public for the sake of record-keeping and later review. Tomorrow’s market could be completely different—76853 could break through in an instant, and if 102 gets lost, it can disappear just as fast. Predictions are predictions; the market is always right.
What do you think? Are you planning to hold through the night on the weekend, or move out first and observe? Feel free to discuss your trading approach in the comments.