Behind the Scenes Secrets: What’s Really Going On?

1. The Four-Year Cycle Starts to "Crack"

So far, we’ve believed in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle: three years up, one year of correction, repeating whenever halving happens. But analysts are starting to doubt this pattern.

Bitwise—one of the largest crypto asset managers—firmly states that the Bitcoin four-year cycle will end in 2026. Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, explains that the driving force behind the previous cycle has drastically weakened:

  • The impact of each halving gets smaller over time

  • Interest rates are expected to fall in 2026, not rise like in the previous cycle

  • The risk of a major bankruptcy decreases after a large liquidation at the end of 2025

  • Clearer regulation begins to take shape

Even Scott Melker and Arthur Hayes have started questioning whether this cycle still holds.

Anthony Scaramucci (SkyBridge Capital) sees the opposite. He believes Bitcoin will return above $100,000 because the next halving cycle in April 2028 will tighten supply.

PlanB, the creator of the famous Stock-to-Flow model, even raised his target to $250,000–$1,000,000 per BTC before the end of this cycle (2026–2028). He emphasizes that "patience" is key for investors.

2. A Major Wave of Institutions Coming In

Here is the biggest "secret" rarely discussed: traditional financial institutions are rushing in.

According to a CoinShares survey, of 26 institutional investors with total assets under management of $1.3 trillion, 32% already hold Bitcoin and 25% have allocated funds to Ethereum. Coinbase reports that sovereign wealth funds (state wealth funds) and family offices are actively "buying on dips."

David Ripley, Co-CEO of Kraken, even said: "Almost all traditional financial services companies will offer crypto—Bitcoin and Ethereum—to their customers—this is the big story of 2026."

3. Threats You Need to Watch Out For

But there are a few "roadblocks":

  • Quantum Technology: VanEck calls the "quantum ghost" one of the factors holding Bitcoin back. However, they are optimistic that this is a software problem that can be solved with a software solution.

  • AI-Found Vulnerability: Core Lightning has just warned node operators about a vulnerability identified by AI. Even Bitcoin Red Team—an expert security volunteer group—has found 4,962 potential findings across 390 Bitcoin projects. This reminds us that security is an ongoing battle.

Price Prediction: What Do the Experts Say?

Here is a summary of predictions from various leading institutions:

Institution/Analyst Bitcoin Price Prediction 2026 Notes

CoinShares $110,000–$140,000

($coinshare) (base case); Bullish >$150,000  Depends on policy

The Fed and inflation

Bitwise New all-time high

($bitwise) (above $126,000)  Driven by institutions and

regulation

Bernstein Back to $125,000 Long-term target 2033:

$1,000,000

21shares $100,000 Recovery after the correction

PlanB $250,000–$1,000,000 Stock-to-Flow model,

end-of-cycle target 2026-2028

After reading the predictions and the behind-the-scenes secrets, the next question is: How do you take advantage of this moment? What is the right investment strategy amid uncertainty?

Stay tuned for the next section, where we’ll discuss "Bitcoin Investment Strategy in 2026: Between FOMO and Fear of Missing Out." We’ll cover how to read market signals, when to enter, and when to exit.

See you in the next article. And remember: in the crypto world, accurate and timely information is the most valuable asset. Keep learning, keep reading, and never stop finding out!