🔥When Waller speaks, short-term bond yields jump straight up! The 2-year yield leaps 12 basis points, and the rate-hike probability breaks above 50%!
#美国短期国债收益率上涨
On August 28, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Conference, and short-term Treasury yields surged immediately.
📊 Specific yield changes:
· 2-year Treasury yield: Up 12 basis points to 4.3558%, the highest since July
· 10-year Treasury yield: Up 5 basis points to 4.722%
· 30-year Treasury yield: Only up 2.4 basis points to 5.215%
💥 Why do short maturities rise while long maturities stay flat? The yield curve sharply flattens!
This is the classic “front-end up, long-end flat” setup—the narrowing in the 2s10s spread is the largest since June. The market believes the Fed may need to hike further in the near term more aggressively, but if anti-inflation policies work, long-term inflation pressure could ease, thereby limiting upside room for long-end yields.
📈 Rate-hike probability surges across the board:
· September rate-hike probability: Jumps from about 35% to over 50%, reaching 57% at one point intraday
· Rate-hike expectations before year-end: Rise from about 28 basis points to 45 basis points
📉 Short term (1–3 months): Bearish 📉
With the September rate-hike probability already above 50%, Waller clearly said financial conditions are “not restrictive,” leaving room for short-end yields to rise. Risk assets come under pressure, and BTC quickly drops from above 81,000 to around 77,000. August CPI is the next key variable—if it comes in above expectations, a rate hike becomes a foregone conclusion.
🚀 Long term (6 months and beyond): Bearish 📉
U.S. public debt has already surpassed $40 trillion, while the fiscal deficit keeps expanding; a surge in AI corporate bond issuance is diverting duration-focused funding away from Treasuries; and foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is structurally declining. Long-end yields are “easy to rise, hard to fall.”
💡 One-sentence summary: Whether short-end or long-end, the direction of Treasury yields is—up.
Guys, do you think the Fed will really hike rates in September?
$JPM
$GS
$MS.US
#美国短期国债收益率上涨
On August 28, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Conference, and short-term Treasury yields surged immediately.
📊 Specific yield changes:
· 2-year Treasury yield: Up 12 basis points to 4.3558%, the highest since July
· 10-year Treasury yield: Up 5 basis points to 4.722%
· 30-year Treasury yield: Only up 2.4 basis points to 5.215%
💥 Why do short maturities rise while long maturities stay flat? The yield curve sharply flattens!
This is the classic “front-end up, long-end flat” setup—the narrowing in the 2s10s spread is the largest since June. The market believes the Fed may need to hike further in the near term more aggressively, but if anti-inflation policies work, long-term inflation pressure could ease, thereby limiting upside room for long-end yields.
📈 Rate-hike probability surges across the board:
· September rate-hike probability: Jumps from about 35% to over 50%, reaching 57% at one point intraday
· Rate-hike expectations before year-end: Rise from about 28 basis points to 45 basis points
📉 Short term (1–3 months): Bearish 📉
With the September rate-hike probability already above 50%, Waller clearly said financial conditions are “not restrictive,” leaving room for short-end yields to rise. Risk assets come under pressure, and BTC quickly drops from above 81,000 to around 77,000. August CPI is the next key variable—if it comes in above expectations, a rate hike becomes a foregone conclusion.
🚀 Long term (6 months and beyond): Bearish 📉
U.S. public debt has already surpassed $40 trillion, while the fiscal deficit keeps expanding; a surge in AI corporate bond issuance is diverting duration-focused funding away from Treasuries; and foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is structurally declining. Long-end yields are “easy to rise, hard to fall.”
💡 One-sentence summary: Whether short-end or long-end, the direction of Treasury yields is—up.
Guys, do you think the Fed will really hike rates in September?
$JPM
$GS
$MS.US