$龙虾 long-short ratio has reached 840%. Going long with a position size of 40 million, while shorting is only under 5 million—longs are extremely crowded.
In the early morning around 10 o’clock (Figure 2), the long position was only 15 million; after excluding the portion of position increase caused by the coin price rising, a large amount of breakout-chasing longs has been added.
So how will the “dog cartel” bulls retreat?
Option 1: Keep pushing the price up, lure more short sellers in, and then slowly run away with all the breakout-chasing longs to make money together.
Option 2: The “dog cartel” starts unloading in small-scale batches (pull up with small capital, then smash with large capital). The candlestick pattern will show frequent downward wick punctures. Meanwhile, it slowly builds short positions. When it’s about time, it directly dumps the market to escape quickly—kill more for more.
Option 3: Aggressively pump the spot market; the perpetual/futures trades remain range-bound at high levels. First harvest the funding fees. During this process, complete the long-to-short transition. Then in the next wave, smash the market to close out.
Personally, I lean toward Option 2. Option 3 is the best play for the “dog cartel,” but I’m worried the exchange will intervene, and in recent times there haven’t been many “abnormal” coins doing this.
In the early morning around 10 o’clock (Figure 2), the long position was only 15 million; after excluding the portion of position increase caused by the coin price rising, a large amount of breakout-chasing longs has been added.
So how will the “dog cartel” bulls retreat?
Option 1: Keep pushing the price up, lure more short sellers in, and then slowly run away with all the breakout-chasing longs to make money together.
Option 2: The “dog cartel” starts unloading in small-scale batches (pull up with small capital, then smash with large capital). The candlestick pattern will show frequent downward wick punctures. Meanwhile, it slowly builds short positions. When it’s about time, it directly dumps the market to escape quickly—kill more for more.
Option 3: Aggressively pump the spot market; the perpetual/futures trades remain range-bound at high levels. First harvest the funding fees. During this process, complete the long-to-short transition. Then in the next wave, smash the market to close out.
Personally, I lean toward Option 2. Option 3 is the best play for the “dog cartel,” but I’m worried the exchange will intervene, and in recent times there haven’t been many “abnormal” coins doing this.
