In the spot market, there hasn’t been a single positive candle for twelve straight K-lines. Leverage borrowed funds were cut off in half a day and 54% was chopped; the money withdrew so quickly. But ETH has been hovering right around 2406 for more than ten hours. What I most want to say is this contradiction: what should be falling isn’t.
Contract positions shrank by 3.95% in a day. The system labels it bear_capitulation—what ran is the leveraged long side, not a new wave of shorts actively dumping the market. On the four-hour timeframe, it’s judged as exhausting. The proactive order-taking got absorbed—this drop looks more like a finishing move than the start of a new leg.
Looking at the order book again: for the top 20 levels, the buy volume is 154.9 versus sell volume 32.2—almost a fivefold buy wall propping the bottom. In the whale accounts, the long-side share increased by another 0.7% over seven hours. At this spot, big players didn’t run—they’re still buying. The negative basis is only about ten thousand three. On the futures side it’s nearly flat; no one is continuing to press down.
So my view is: this wave of selling pressure is liquidation, not a directional short. Once the sell pressure is cleared, it will dry up. If you’re going long now, first look for a rebound back to 2443; once it holds, then target 2468. Place the stop-loss below 2406.
If price really breaks through 2406 and takes it down, and the range box fails, then this wouldn’t be liquidation anymore—it would be a shift to bearish. I’ll immediately flip to short and watch 2355. The spot market’s large orders accelerating out and the buy-wall order cancellations are also the same reversal signal.
#eth $ETH
Contract positions shrank by 3.95% in a day. The system labels it bear_capitulation—what ran is the leveraged long side, not a new wave of shorts actively dumping the market. On the four-hour timeframe, it’s judged as exhausting. The proactive order-taking got absorbed—this drop looks more like a finishing move than the start of a new leg.
Looking at the order book again: for the top 20 levels, the buy volume is 154.9 versus sell volume 32.2—almost a fivefold buy wall propping the bottom. In the whale accounts, the long-side share increased by another 0.7% over seven hours. At this spot, big players didn’t run—they’re still buying. The negative basis is only about ten thousand three. On the futures side it’s nearly flat; no one is continuing to press down.
So my view is: this wave of selling pressure is liquidation, not a directional short. Once the sell pressure is cleared, it will dry up. If you’re going long now, first look for a rebound back to 2443; once it holds, then target 2468. Place the stop-loss below 2406.
If price really breaks through 2406 and takes it down, and the range box fails, then this wouldn’t be liquidation anymore—it would be a shift to bearish. I’ll immediately flip to short and watch 2355. The spot market’s large orders accelerating out and the buy-wall order cancellations are also the same reversal signal.
#eth $ETH
