The most worth talking about mismatch today is: spot is being bought in, while futures are still running. In the past 3 hours, spot net inflows exceeded $12 million. Out of 12 candles, not a single one is negative, yet the price was smashed from 3.068 back to 2.71—unable to even reclaim the 20/50 moving averages.
Because the buyer’s money goes into the spot market, while the escaping money goes into the futures. And this rally was originally burned up by leverage. The contract open interest was labeled "bull-strong" after a +23% day increase, but in the past 7 hours the open interest shrank by 15%, open-interest market value fell by 23%, the basis flipped negative, and aggressive sell orders are pressing down on buy orders—so that "bull-strong" tag is a lagging label propped up on the way to 3.068. The engine is stalling out.
The spot order book is on the same side too: the 20-level sell wall is 1.7 times the size of the buy wall. The latest aggressive buy/sell ratio is 0.322, and the fee rate is down to just 0.003%. The fuel for the longs is running out.
So this move: I’m leaning bearish, not guessing the top. The leveraged longs are running it themselves. My initial target is to fill the dip hole at 2.51 before today’s open; if it breaks below, then look around 2.1 near the three-day low. If the price climbs back above the 3.068 daily high, spot large orders are still coming in, and open interest also stops falling and rebounds—then I’ve misread it, and I’ll admit it and exit.
#trump $TRUMP
Because the buyer’s money goes into the spot market, while the escaping money goes into the futures. And this rally was originally burned up by leverage. The contract open interest was labeled "bull-strong" after a +23% day increase, but in the past 7 hours the open interest shrank by 15%, open-interest market value fell by 23%, the basis flipped negative, and aggressive sell orders are pressing down on buy orders—so that "bull-strong" tag is a lagging label propped up on the way to 3.068. The engine is stalling out.
The spot order book is on the same side too: the 20-level sell wall is 1.7 times the size of the buy wall. The latest aggressive buy/sell ratio is 0.322, and the fee rate is down to just 0.003%. The fuel for the longs is running out.
So this move: I’m leaning bearish, not guessing the top. The leveraged longs are running it themselves. My initial target is to fill the dip hole at 2.51 before today’s open; if it breaks below, then look around 2.1 near the three-day low. If the price climbs back above the 3.068 daily high, spot large orders are still coming in, and open interest also stops falling and rebounds—then I’ve misread it, and I’ll admit it and exit.
#trump $TRUMP
