Bitcoin fell below $77,000 in the early hours, and a single large bearish candle wiped out all the $81,000 longs. Everyone in the market is saying that Federal Reserve Chair Waller has turned hawkish, and the probability of a September rate hike jumped overnight to 55%.
But on the other side, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling more than $3 billion—IBIT alone has absorbed $2.3 billion. Strive’s products increased holdings by 2,680 BTC over 5 days, setting a historical record.
Institutions haven’t fled; they’ve simply shifted their chips toward the leading products with the best liquidity. In the short term, macro expectations are the fast variable, while ETF inflows are the slow variable—and this time, the fast variable won.
The question is: if Waller really does raise rates, can the slow variable still hedge? Do you believe the Federal Reserve’s mouth, or the money from institutions?
But on the other side, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling more than $3 billion—IBIT alone has absorbed $2.3 billion. Strive’s products increased holdings by 2,680 BTC over 5 days, setting a historical record.
Institutions haven’t fled; they’ve simply shifted their chips toward the leading products with the best liquidity. In the short term, macro expectations are the fast variable, while ETF inflows are the slow variable—and this time, the fast variable won.
The question is: if Waller really does raise rates, can the slow variable still hedge? Do you believe the Federal Reserve’s mouth, or the money from institutions?