SPCX’s funding rate has been negative for 8 straight samplings—shorts have been paying the bill. And contract open interest increased by another 2.88% in a day, hitting 223 million—paying fees, getting hit, while positions keep piling up. This isn’t surrender; it’s warehousing liquidity.
More plainly, for passive/active orders: active buys account for only 38.4%, while sell orders are 1.6 times the buy orders. Over 24 hours, the price moved just 0.07%, grinding near the 15-minute moving average below it; over 4 hours, it’s 2 down candles and 4 up candles. None of the added positions pushed the price up.
When you look at big players, you have to break it down: in the number of accounts, 65.5% are long, same as retail. But by position-weighting, longs are only 56.7%. The most money is “long” in words, but physically it’s more bearish than the account count suggests. For spot, the net inflow from large orders has been 0 for several consecutive K-lines—this OI increase has no real cash backing it.
At this level, I’m bearish on SPCX: all three signs are aligned—open interest rising, active sell pressure stronger, and the funding rate turning negative—while price is still pinned below the moving average. Shorts are accumulating; longs are passively receiving.
The one signal for my view to reverse: if the price reclaims above 143 (the 24-hour high) with a volume expansion and pullback, or if spot large-order net inflows start turning consistently positive and the funding rate flips back to positive—then it means this batch of positions is being absorbed, not used to push down. I’ll cut loss and go long.
#spcx $SPCX
More plainly, for passive/active orders: active buys account for only 38.4%, while sell orders are 1.6 times the buy orders. Over 24 hours, the price moved just 0.07%, grinding near the 15-minute moving average below it; over 4 hours, it’s 2 down candles and 4 up candles. None of the added positions pushed the price up.
When you look at big players, you have to break it down: in the number of accounts, 65.5% are long, same as retail. But by position-weighting, longs are only 56.7%. The most money is “long” in words, but physically it’s more bearish than the account count suggests. For spot, the net inflow from large orders has been 0 for several consecutive K-lines—this OI increase has no real cash backing it.
At this level, I’m bearish on SPCX: all three signs are aligned—open interest rising, active sell pressure stronger, and the funding rate turning negative—while price is still pinned below the moving average. Shorts are accumulating; longs are passively receiving.
The one signal for my view to reverse: if the price reclaims above 143 (the 24-hour high) with a volume expansion and pullback, or if spot large-order net inflows start turning consistently positive and the funding rate flips back to positive—then it means this batch of positions is being absorbed, not used to push down. I’ll cut loss and go long.
#spcx $SPCX
