In the crypto market, a common four-stage cycle is “accumulation—rally—distribution—decline,” but it isn’t a fixed calendar. During the accumulation phase, sentiment is low and trading is cautious; in the rally phase, trends and attention increase; in the distribution phase, prices may still look strong, but volatility and divergence grow; in the decline phase, deleveraging and panic dominate. Cycle analysis can only help you build scenarios—it can’t guarantee accurate predictions of turning points. More important than chasing “this time will definitely be different” is scaling in gradually, setting exit conditions, and aligning your position size with your own timeline and risk tolerance.