$103 worth of SOL—do you dare to bottom-fish?
First, look at the surface: good news everywhere, but the price isn’t rising.
Over the past two weeks, it pushed from 75 to 110. In the last month alone, it surged 40%. SGP-0002 has passed: annualized inflation was raised from 15% to 30%, and over the next 6 years, 18.8 million fewer SOL will be issued. Bitwise’s BSOL AUM surpassed $1 billion, with $60.91 million net inflow on August 27 alone. Charles Schwab wants to add SOL into the trading channels. All of it is bullish—yet SOL dumped from 110 back to 103.
On the daily chart, it’s overbought and rolling over. The 4-hour uptrend line has been broken, and the 100 level marks a long/short standoff.
First thing: SGP-0002 passed, but you may have been played
The vote result was 67.001%—barely over two-thirds. Kraken flipped long at the last moment to squeak it through. Why so close? Because staking rewards will be suppressed. Model data shows that after three years, nominal staking returns fall from 5.2% to 2.25%. Validator incentives are split.
Retail sees “deflationary-bullish.” Institutions see “staking whales are going to exit.”
SGP-0003 (increasing burn) didn’t pass. Daily burning still sits at 650 SOL; the reduction comes from issuing less, not burning more.
Second thing: ETF inflows are still coming, but macro isn’t buying
Bitwise put in $60.91 million in a day. ARK is still buying. Net inflows for Solana-related products are positive, but BTC is getting yanked out aggressively.
On Friday’s Jackson Hole debut, Kevin Warsh was hawkish: PCE at 3.7%, with 2% being a “hard target.” The probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 55%-60%. BTC crashed from 81k straight down to 77.6k. Gold is down too. Risk assets are being priced as “higher for longer.”
Third thing: technicals show conflicting signals
From 75 to 110, SOL gained 46%. The daily RSI hit the 70–80 overbought zone, and now it’s pulling back to neutral. The 4-hour uptrend line is broken. In the short term, bears are drawing a structure of “108–110 rejection.”
But the daily structure is still: higher lows. 75 → 87 → 95 → 102. This uptrend hasn’t been broken yet. The 100 level is a newly broken psychological line. On the first retest, bulls must hold.
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
103 isn’t the best entry point. Wait for a low-buy limit between 100.2–100.8. Stop-loss: 95.8. Target: 108. If it rebounds and stalls in 105.8–108.2, you can short the pullback—stop-loss: 110.8. Target: 101–98.
Swing traders:
Try to buy in batches at 100–102. Add more at 97–98 to reach 50–60% exposure. Stop-loss: 95.8. Take profit: exit 30% at 106–108. Sell another 30% at 110.5. Keep the remaining core position to watch 115–120. When it hits 108–110, remember to trim.
Long-term believers:
From 96–100, DCA in batches without overthinking. With the institutional channel + supply contraction + real usage all improving together, the medium-term thesis hasn’t broken.
First, look at the surface: good news everywhere, but the price isn’t rising.
Over the past two weeks, it pushed from 75 to 110. In the last month alone, it surged 40%. SGP-0002 has passed: annualized inflation was raised from 15% to 30%, and over the next 6 years, 18.8 million fewer SOL will be issued. Bitwise’s BSOL AUM surpassed $1 billion, with $60.91 million net inflow on August 27 alone. Charles Schwab wants to add SOL into the trading channels. All of it is bullish—yet SOL dumped from 110 back to 103.
On the daily chart, it’s overbought and rolling over. The 4-hour uptrend line has been broken, and the 100 level marks a long/short standoff.
First thing: SGP-0002 passed, but you may have been played
The vote result was 67.001%—barely over two-thirds. Kraken flipped long at the last moment to squeak it through. Why so close? Because staking rewards will be suppressed. Model data shows that after three years, nominal staking returns fall from 5.2% to 2.25%. Validator incentives are split.
Retail sees “deflationary-bullish.” Institutions see “staking whales are going to exit.”
SGP-0003 (increasing burn) didn’t pass. Daily burning still sits at 650 SOL; the reduction comes from issuing less, not burning more.
Second thing: ETF inflows are still coming, but macro isn’t buying
Bitwise put in $60.91 million in a day. ARK is still buying. Net inflows for Solana-related products are positive, but BTC is getting yanked out aggressively.
On Friday’s Jackson Hole debut, Kevin Warsh was hawkish: PCE at 3.7%, with 2% being a “hard target.” The probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 55%-60%. BTC crashed from 81k straight down to 77.6k. Gold is down too. Risk assets are being priced as “higher for longer.”
Third thing: technicals show conflicting signals
From 75 to 110, SOL gained 46%. The daily RSI hit the 70–80 overbought zone, and now it’s pulling back to neutral. The 4-hour uptrend line is broken. In the short term, bears are drawing a structure of “108–110 rejection.”
But the daily structure is still: higher lows. 75 → 87 → 95 → 102. This uptrend hasn’t been broken yet. The 100 level is a newly broken psychological line. On the first retest, bulls must hold.
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
103 isn’t the best entry point. Wait for a low-buy limit between 100.2–100.8. Stop-loss: 95.8. Target: 108. If it rebounds and stalls in 105.8–108.2, you can short the pullback—stop-loss: 110.8. Target: 101–98.
Swing traders:
Try to buy in batches at 100–102. Add more at 97–98 to reach 50–60% exposure. Stop-loss: 95.8. Take profit: exit 30% at 106–108. Sell another 30% at 110.5. Keep the remaining core position to watch 115–120. When it hits 108–110, remember to trim.
Long-term believers:
From 96–100, DCA in batches without overthinking. With the institutional channel + supply contraction + real usage all improving together, the medium-term thesis hasn’t broken.
