Let’s talk about the pie Musk drew 😂
$SPCX
He said that by 2033, SpaceX’s annual revenue could reach $3.5 trillion. In contrast, a model from Morgan Stanley doesn’t reach that figure until 2040—basically directly implying that investment banks’ outlook is too conservative, by bringing it forward by seven years.
So what does $3.5 trillion mean? Walmart’s annual revenue is around $680 billion, which means this is over five WalMarts. SpaceX’s annual revenue right now is still in the range of a few billion dollars, so it would need to grow by 30 times in a bit more than ten years. He just announced a goal of $1 trillion for 2030, and now by 2033 he’s already jumping to $3.5 trillion. In the three years in between, it still needs to more than triple again—pretty amazing, right?
That said, this isn’t entirely just guesswork. Starlink is currently growing its user base and revenue like a snowball. And once Starship truly achieves high-frequency reuse—say, launching multiple times a day—the launch market would be absorbed completely, which really is an astronomical-sized piece of the pie. If Morgan Stanley dares to put the number at $3.5 trillion by 2040, that suggests even the most optimistic people on Wall Street recognize this direction—just believing the path will take time. Then Old Man Musk complains they’re going too slowly and starts running ahead himself.
There’s also something interesting~ Morgan Stanley’s $3.5 trillion in 2040 is already treated as an aggressive projection, yet he still thinks it’s late. That suggests that in his own mind, SpaceX’s endgame is even bigger than what the outside world imagines. When Starship really starts doing several launches a day and Starlink users grow by, say, ten times, and then you look back at his statement—whether it was boasting or conservative—will be clear naturally.
$SPCX
He said that by 2033, SpaceX’s annual revenue could reach $3.5 trillion. In contrast, a model from Morgan Stanley doesn’t reach that figure until 2040—basically directly implying that investment banks’ outlook is too conservative, by bringing it forward by seven years.
So what does $3.5 trillion mean? Walmart’s annual revenue is around $680 billion, which means this is over five WalMarts. SpaceX’s annual revenue right now is still in the range of a few billion dollars, so it would need to grow by 30 times in a bit more than ten years. He just announced a goal of $1 trillion for 2030, and now by 2033 he’s already jumping to $3.5 trillion. In the three years in between, it still needs to more than triple again—pretty amazing, right?
That said, this isn’t entirely just guesswork. Starlink is currently growing its user base and revenue like a snowball. And once Starship truly achieves high-frequency reuse—say, launching multiple times a day—the launch market would be absorbed completely, which really is an astronomical-sized piece of the pie. If Morgan Stanley dares to put the number at $3.5 trillion by 2040, that suggests even the most optimistic people on Wall Street recognize this direction—just believing the path will take time. Then Old Man Musk complains they’re going too slowly and starts running ahead himself.
There’s also something interesting~ Morgan Stanley’s $3.5 trillion in 2040 is already treated as an aggressive projection, yet he still thinks it’s late. That suggests that in his own mind, SpaceX’s endgame is even bigger than what the outside world imagines. When Starship really starts doing several launches a day and Starlink users grow by, say, ten times, and then you look back at his statement—whether it was boasting or conservative—will be clear naturally.