$ETH Continuous net inflows coming to a halt—does this mean the market is entering a retreat signal?
Ethereum’s performance has been very impressive recently, with bullish sentiment rising steadily. Now it’s seeing a drop—what exactly is the reason?
First, the most certain factor is that last night, the Fed turned hawkish. The main concern is inflation. The market’s interpretation is that to deal with inflation, rate cuts are unlikely—possible rate hikes instead.
If rate hikes do come into play, investment market funds would likely flow out significantly, with people rushing to keep money in banks and buy U.S. Treasuries. It’s because of this news that capital trigger-linked selling occurred, causing mainstream assets and gold to drop sharply right on cue.
Actually, there’s no need to panic. Personally, I think this is very likely just a pullback driven by negative sentiment. First, mainstream assets have surged and consolidated for almost 10 days in a row. From a technical standpoint, it’s indeed about time for a correction. With concentrated profit-taking, a temporary sell pressure forming is completely normal.
Second, geopolitical tensions are gradually being repaired, and their impact on the crypto market is becoming weaker and weaker. This makes mainstream assets more stable and less prone to being affected by headline news.
Also, based on my analysis, even though a rate cut is not very likely right now, a rate hike is also not very realistic. Yes, inflation does need to be addressed—but on the table, there are already U.S. Treasuries. The higher U.S. Treasuries go, the higher yields become, and interest payments are a huge burden on the U.S. Treasury. At the same time, market funds are also pouring into Treasuries—putting money in banks to earn interest. Then people invest less in factories and fewer people are willing to work, which leads to rising unemployment. That momentum is already showing.
So, most likely, things will maintain the status quo. Next week, there’s a high chance of a pullback and a further sell-off. For a more prudent approach, wait for the correction to stabilize and then look to go long at lower levels. My personal guess is that price could fall below 2400. Going forward, I’ll keep a close watch and look for the best entry point. #美联储9月加息概率升至57%
Ethereum’s performance has been very impressive recently, with bullish sentiment rising steadily. Now it’s seeing a drop—what exactly is the reason?
First, the most certain factor is that last night, the Fed turned hawkish. The main concern is inflation. The market’s interpretation is that to deal with inflation, rate cuts are unlikely—possible rate hikes instead.
If rate hikes do come into play, investment market funds would likely flow out significantly, with people rushing to keep money in banks and buy U.S. Treasuries. It’s because of this news that capital trigger-linked selling occurred, causing mainstream assets and gold to drop sharply right on cue.
Actually, there’s no need to panic. Personally, I think this is very likely just a pullback driven by negative sentiment. First, mainstream assets have surged and consolidated for almost 10 days in a row. From a technical standpoint, it’s indeed about time for a correction. With concentrated profit-taking, a temporary sell pressure forming is completely normal.
Second, geopolitical tensions are gradually being repaired, and their impact on the crypto market is becoming weaker and weaker. This makes mainstream assets more stable and less prone to being affected by headline news.
Also, based on my analysis, even though a rate cut is not very likely right now, a rate hike is also not very realistic. Yes, inflation does need to be addressed—but on the table, there are already U.S. Treasuries. The higher U.S. Treasuries go, the higher yields become, and interest payments are a huge burden on the U.S. Treasury. At the same time, market funds are also pouring into Treasuries—putting money in banks to earn interest. Then people invest less in factories and fewer people are willing to work, which leads to rising unemployment. That momentum is already showing.
So, most likely, things will maintain the status quo. Next week, there’s a high chance of a pullback and a further sell-off. For a more prudent approach, wait for the correction to stabilize and then look to go long at lower levels. My personal guess is that price could fall below 2400. Going forward, I’ll keep a close watch and look for the best entry point. #美联储9月加息概率升至57%
