【 Short-term pullback to watch, but the big trend still looks bullish! BTC’s next extreme target: 88,000–89,000?】
Today BTC has overall started to weaken, which is basically consistent with our earlier judgment of “the higher it rises, the higher the risk.”
At the moment, the 4-hour chart has already shown a clear second top divergence. More importantly, the MACD failed to cross twice—both were classic cases of “cross not happening”—and then it immediately turned downward, with bearish momentum strengthening.
On the technical side, BTC has already broken below the previous ascending channel. In the short term, a pullback to the lower boundary of that channel isn’t out of the question first—around $79,300. If that pullback confirms but BTC still can’t reclaim the level, then the probability of further downward adjustment from here increases significantly.
So the short-term playbook is fairly clear right now:
Pullback confirmation around $79,300 → continued downward adjustment → pay close attention to $73,000–$75,000.
Personally, I currently already hold about 60% spot exposure, with a relatively low overall cost basis. My ETH cost is $1,556 and my SOL cost is $65. Since this rally already captured most of the upside, I won’t rush to add aggressively at higher levels just because I’m not fully invested.
My strategy remains unchanged: below the $75,000 area, I don’t consider adding more.
The big trend hasn’t ended yet. In fact, this short-term pullback is an opportunity to readjust positions. For friends who are currently lightly positioned, you can also重点 wait for the $73,000–$75,000 region.
If the larger uptrend continues afterward, the extreme upside expectation is still in the $88,000–$89,000 area (the neckline level that was broken when the earlier large head-and-shoulders pattern triggered).
#比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元 $BTC #BTC $ETH $SOL
Today BTC has overall started to weaken, which is basically consistent with our earlier judgment of “the higher it rises, the higher the risk.”
At the moment, the 4-hour chart has already shown a clear second top divergence. More importantly, the MACD failed to cross twice—both were classic cases of “cross not happening”—and then it immediately turned downward, with bearish momentum strengthening.
On the technical side, BTC has already broken below the previous ascending channel. In the short term, a pullback to the lower boundary of that channel isn’t out of the question first—around $79,300. If that pullback confirms but BTC still can’t reclaim the level, then the probability of further downward adjustment from here increases significantly.
So the short-term playbook is fairly clear right now:
Pullback confirmation around $79,300 → continued downward adjustment → pay close attention to $73,000–$75,000.
Personally, I currently already hold about 60% spot exposure, with a relatively low overall cost basis. My ETH cost is $1,556 and my SOL cost is $65. Since this rally already captured most of the upside, I won’t rush to add aggressively at higher levels just because I’m not fully invested.
My strategy remains unchanged: below the $75,000 area, I don’t consider adding more.
The big trend hasn’t ended yet. In fact, this short-term pullback is an opportunity to readjust positions. For friends who are currently lightly positioned, you can also重点 wait for the $73,000–$75,000 region.
If the larger uptrend continues afterward, the extreme upside expectation is still in the $88,000–$89,000 area (the neckline level that was broken when the earlier large head-and-shoulders pattern triggered).
#比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元 $BTC #BTC $ETH $SOL
