$ETH This leg fell from 2526 to 2404. On the surface it looks like it’s moving with US stock sentiment, but I noticed a signal: trading volume is 900 million, at least 30% higher than usual for the same level of decline. Retail investors are panicking and cutting positions, but on the order book around 2400, the buy orders sitting there are unusually thick—like there’s capital propping things up and accumulating. What are the big players doing? They’re leveraging that “warning signal seen once in decades” from the S&P 500, deliberately driving ETH through a psychological support level to flush out the last wave of floating profit holders. You see, over the past 24 hours ETH is down 2.22%, but among mainstream coins, ETH’s drawdown is actually relatively restrained—this in itself is a bullish signal.
Second observation: the price spread between spot and derivatives is widening. The funding rate on perpetual futures has already turned negative, which means shorts are adding, but ETH’s spot price is still holding steadily at 2435 and not following futures’ panic. This kind of divergence usually means the shorts are bluffing. They know 2404 is a recent “iron bottom,” so they don’t dare to truly smash it—they only manipulate the derivatives side. I reckon this shakeout is targeting leveraged longs’ chips; once it’s washed through, it should rise.
Third point: in the US stocks, Newmont has crashed and the S&P warning signals are everywhere, but ETH’s on-chain active address count is quietly increasing instead. The money hasn’t left—it’s rotating hands. Big players don’t follow the crowd to shout bearish; they’re using the news-driven panic to gobble up the chips between 2400 and 2450. Let’s wait and see: as long as US stocks don’t collapse tonight, ETH has a high chance of rebounding to 2500, and maybe even testing the 2526 high. This level isn’t an escape point—it’s a positioning point. What do you think?
Second observation: the price spread between spot and derivatives is widening. The funding rate on perpetual futures has already turned negative, which means shorts are adding, but ETH’s spot price is still holding steadily at 2435 and not following futures’ panic. This kind of divergence usually means the shorts are bluffing. They know 2404 is a recent “iron bottom,” so they don’t dare to truly smash it—they only manipulate the derivatives side. I reckon this shakeout is targeting leveraged longs’ chips; once it’s washed through, it should rise.
Third point: in the US stocks, Newmont has crashed and the S&P warning signals are everywhere, but ETH’s on-chain active address count is quietly increasing instead. The money hasn’t left—it’s rotating hands. Big players don’t follow the crowd to shout bearish; they’re using the news-driven panic to gobble up the chips between 2400 and 2450. Let’s wait and see: as long as US stocks don’t collapse tonight, ETH has a high chance of rebounding to 2500, and maybe even testing the 2526 high. This level isn’t an escape point—it’s a positioning point. What do you think?
