BTC’s third time suffering a large underperformance versus the Nasdaq; both previous instances saw strong independent rallies
On August 30, analyst Rekt Fencer released a BTC-to-Nasdaq 3-day ratio chart, marking three significant drawdowns: approximately -84.9% in 2018, about -80.7% in 2022, and the current roughly -54.3% in 2026. Rekt Fencer said that after the first two times Bitcoin suffered such a large underperformance relative to the Nasdaq, they were followed by very strong independent uptrends, with prices subsequently surging nearly straight up. With the ratio now falling sharply again, history may repeat for a third time; the bottom is already near, and next BTC will strengthen again. The drawdown in the BTC-to-Nasdaq ratio indeed forms a rare long-term pattern: the deep underperformance of -84.9% in 2018 and -80.7% in 2022 both occurred at the end of a period of tightening macro liquidity, after which Bitcoin completed a repair through a decoupling-style independent move. While the current underperformance of -54.3% has not matched the extremes of the previous two instances, combined with Wintermute’s earlier observation that BTC is more bearish-biased than equities and shows asymmetric behavior—smaller gains on up days—the market structure has already become highly similar to the 2022 bear market.
☕On Monday afternoon, in a choppy market, hold onto your inner steadiness 🌤️.
The market repeatedly whipsaws—don’t let intraday fluctuations disturb your emotions 📊. Stick to DCA spot purchases of BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL 🪙, avoid chasing short-term surges, and accumulate bottom-position lots slowly through DCA ⏳. Resist the urge to trade frequently, and refuse to be carried away by the screen’s sentiment 🕯️. The confidence to invest comes from holding onto quality assets and letting time do its work ✨. Stay on your pace, wait for the cycle to unfold, and encourage one another with fellow travelers 💎. #布伦特原油涨破90美元 #交易 #1688 family
On August 30, analyst Rekt Fencer published a BTC vs. Nasdaq 3-day chart ratio, marking three notable drawdowns: approximately -84.9% in 2018, about -80.7% in 2022, and currently around -54.3% in 2026. Rekt Fencer said that after the first two times Bitcoin fell behind the Nasdaq by such a large margin, it was followed by a very strong independent uptrend, and the price was then sharply driven upward in a straight surge. Now the ratio has dropped significantly again; history may repeat for the third time. The bottom is already near, and next BTC will strengthen again.
🌿A new week begins; market ups and downs are simply the norm. Don’t let short-term fluctuations throw off your mindset. Keep your patience and sense of measure—stick to your own rhythm. Wishing everyone stable positioning, with opportunities arriving as scheduled, and all things going well✨
Recently, several young streamers with large fan bases visited a university campus to chat with college students. Their educational backgrounds are not particularly outstanding, yet they earn substantial incomes through livestreaming. On stage, they talked about their experiences and perseverance, with some relaxed and teasing expressions mixed in as well. Such exchanges allow college students to see different paths to growth beyond the classroom—an inherently positive thing. However, once related videos went viral, some netizens began to lament: “What’s the use of going to college? After graduation, my monthly salary is only a few thousand yuan.” “It’s better to start streaming earlier.” … “The idea that studying is useless” seems to have taken on a new tone, sparking discussion as a result.
$BTC Honestly, deep down, I actually expect more than anyone else that BTC will pull back to around 40,000. If we really get to this level, my take can be discussed and held for years.
But reality is right in front of us: that big bullish candle for BTC has pierced through three moving averages in one move, and the overall market structure has completely changed. I can’t stick to old habits and stubbornly insist that BTC will definitely return to 40,000.
Some people will question: I was looking at 50,000 the other day—so why did my view change so quickly? To be honest, I’m also afraid—afraid of missing out on this bull market cycle.
Thinking must evolve with the market. Right now is the early stage of a transition from bear to bull, just like what people in my hometown say: when a young person is just beginning to show their talent, the market is only just starting to wake up.
There’s still a chance to get in, but for BTC in the 50-thousand handle, we probably won’t be waiting for that again. Opportunities for positioning still exist around 65,000 and 68,000; in the worst case, around 70,000. The probability of this opportunity is at least 50%.
A single misstep can become a lifelong regret—by the time you turn around, the bull market has already gone far. Every time a bull market starts, the path is never a simple copy of the previous one. Trying to “cut a boat by the sword,” blindly replicating past patterns, will only mislead yourself—and mislead the people around you.
Humble yourself to the trend—there’s nothing shameful about it. Of course, chasing long positions right now isn’t rational either. If this round can’t break through 8.3W, the market will likely come into a pullback, and most likely trade sideways in the 65,000–72,000 range for 3–5 months. Then, once one day sees a breakout with strong volume, the bull market’s main surge toward 100,000 will officially begin—this is the scenario I think is most likely to play out next.
Why does the bodhisattva sit upside down? It’s a sigh for all sentient beings who refuse to turn back.
ETH will move in sync with BTC, oscillating as it pulls back to the 1,800–2,000 range—good for staged spot entries. SOL dropping to 80–90 can be accumulated in batches. PAXG pulling back to around 4,200–4,300 is worth watching; with multiple central banks continuously increasing large holdings, it’s something to pay attention to.
There are quite a few U.S. stock benchmarks. I’ll break them down one by one later. SPX won’t keep making lower lows; the rebound trend should continue. Previously, I planned long-term positions around 110, and that approach still holds.
Let me be candid here: I’m sorry—I was previously leaning too bearish. The market has already transitioned from bear to bull, and the bull market has only just started to show its head.
I hope the broader market will later offer a pullback. For family members who haven’t set up spot positions yet, you can use the pullback to enter in batches. That’s all the thinking I can share. I hope everyone can抓紧 the cycle and time it well.
🌙Grateful for the day, carrying warm light Good night 💗$BNB 🧧🧧 Thank you for all the kindness I encountered today Thank you to myself for continuing, for another day Sleep well #1688家族family
#美国约6700万人持有加密货币 $牛来 😂 Listed on Binance contracts. Bitcoin is really on fire—bull is here!
A Meme coin on BNB Chain (BSC) that rode the hype of the wildly popular and trending mood around the domestic crappy animated series 《Bull Comes》.
• Total supply: 1 billion coins, all in circulation, no locked liquidity
• Features: pure emotion-driven speculation with no real technical implementation—explosive rallies and crashes, extremely high volatility. It’s common to see daily swings of dozens or even hundreds of points.🧧👇👇👇
Standing on the balcony, I smoked a cigarette as the sky slowly darkened, and the weekend was almost over again.
This week’s market was actually pretty lively. BTC surged from 75,000 to 80,000, then got dumped back down, only to rally again—big swings of several thousand points back and forth. Both sides, bulls and bears, had people getting liquidated. I scrolled through my朋友圈 (social feed). Some people were showing off profits, others cursing, and some pretending nothing happened. It was pretty much the same as every weekend.
I personally didn’t do much this week. I held spot, and with a small position I played two swings—just made enough for grocery money. In the past, with this kind of choppy, ranging market, I would definitely have jumped in every day, unable to sit still if I didn’t trade. But not anymore. I’m older now, more cautious. I know that some money isn’t meant to be earned by me.
A lot of people ask me how next week will go. Honestly, I don’t know.
After doing trading for so many years, I’ve become less and less willing to predict. You think you’ve understood the trend, and the market slaps you in the face in a second. You think it’s definitely going down, and it shows you otherwise by going up instead. In the end, you realize that being right a few times about the market isn’t that impressive. The real skill is being able to survive in this market for five or ten years.
As for what happens next week—let’s talk about it next week.
NVIDIA and SpaceX form a “match made in heaven”! Rubin computing power reaches space orbit, and Musk anchors SpaceX’s valuation to a Type II Kardashev civilization
In some parallel universe, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang and “Mr. All-Powerful” and world’s richest man Elon Musk might be a pair of cosmic super heroes.
Right after “AI chip superpower” $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ just released a strong earnings report further lifting global AI capex expectations and launching a new bull run across the AI compute supply chain, Musk is trying to push the expansion boundaries of AI infrastructure from ground level to space orbit—$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$, which he founded and leads, plans to launch its first batch of AI data-center satellites using NVIDIA’s next-generation compute cluster—an AI-dominant cluster led by the Vera Rubin architecture—into space in Q4 2027, and to achieve “significant scale” by 2028. This doesn’t mean ground data centers will be rapidly replaced; instead, it bets that compute in space orbit can bypass major bottlenecks such as terrestrial power grids, land, and water supply, becoming a new layer of AI compute supply.
For NVIDIA, this means expanding the potential market for Vera Rubin from “ground-based AI factories” to “orbital AI factories”; for SpaceX, it’s integrating Starship launches, orbital power, satellite networks, and AI cloud computing into a vertically integrated platform. However, Wall Street financial institutions like Evercore expect that meaningful revenue data won’t be available until as early as fiscal year 2029; thermal management, radiation, collisions, and regulation remain key constraints that will determine whether the concept can be commercialized.$NVDA.US
I invest in BNB and SPCX every day. I suggest everyone invest according to their own allocation and, for those using contracts, trade with small positions!
May your life be like a poem, warm and bright; may you be happy every year and successful in all things. May your life be like a poem, warm and bright; may you be happy every year and successful in all things.