SanDisk 8.29–8.30 Strategy and Analysis
Liquidity is relatively weak over the weekend, so we’ll review SanDisk’s mid-term structure.
We’re currently in a crucial time window for the monthly closing. The chart is at the tail end of a 4H upward swing, and there is also a possibility that a new catalyst may ignite the main up-move from the “head” (start). Looking ahead, there are roughly three scenarios:
1. Higher probability: Price completes a sideways base around the 1419 area, then after building up momentum, it starts the second wave on the 4H timeframe higher;
2. Neutral pullback scenario: After range-bound consolidation, fast probing downward (a “golden needle” dip) appears next week. The pullback completes the shakeout around the 1323 support area, then price moves up again;
3. Bearish breakdown scenario: The structure weakens and a daily timeframe decline swing begins. The key downside target is 972.
Let the market play out first, then follow. During periods of uncertainty, it’s best to stay on the sidelines and insist on trading with the trend.
In terms of execution, wait until the structure is confirmed before entering (aim to catch the second wave). Trying to catch turning points against the trend to grab the first wave has a worse risk-reward profile and higher stop-out probability.
If over the next few trading days a bottom is formed within the 1419–1500 range, focus on whether it can hold effectively above 1552 next week. Once it holds that level, it would indicate a reversal in the smaller-cycle trend. With the smaller timeframe driving the move, it creates a resonance with the larger timeframe—confirming the official start of the second-wave uptrend.
On the short-term 15M timeframe, the support zones are 1466 / 1454, where you can consider going long.
However, once there is an effective break below 1454, the long thesis is temporarily invalid. There is risk of further downside breaking below 1419 and testing 1323.
No holding positions through losses (no “bag carrying”). The uncertainty of the “head and tail” structure is extremely high—don’t blindly enter to bet. Stop-loss risk is relatively large.
Wishing everyone a great weekend. If you think what I wrote is decent, give me a 666.
Liquidity is relatively weak over the weekend, so we’ll review SanDisk’s mid-term structure.
We’re currently in a crucial time window for the monthly closing. The chart is at the tail end of a 4H upward swing, and there is also a possibility that a new catalyst may ignite the main up-move from the “head” (start). Looking ahead, there are roughly three scenarios:
1. Higher probability: Price completes a sideways base around the 1419 area, then after building up momentum, it starts the second wave on the 4H timeframe higher;
2. Neutral pullback scenario: After range-bound consolidation, fast probing downward (a “golden needle” dip) appears next week. The pullback completes the shakeout around the 1323 support area, then price moves up again;
3. Bearish breakdown scenario: The structure weakens and a daily timeframe decline swing begins. The key downside target is 972.
Let the market play out first, then follow. During periods of uncertainty, it’s best to stay on the sidelines and insist on trading with the trend.
In terms of execution, wait until the structure is confirmed before entering (aim to catch the second wave). Trying to catch turning points against the trend to grab the first wave has a worse risk-reward profile and higher stop-out probability.
If over the next few trading days a bottom is formed within the 1419–1500 range, focus on whether it can hold effectively above 1552 next week. Once it holds that level, it would indicate a reversal in the smaller-cycle trend. With the smaller timeframe driving the move, it creates a resonance with the larger timeframe—confirming the official start of the second-wave uptrend.
On the short-term 15M timeframe, the support zones are 1466 / 1454, where you can consider going long.
However, once there is an effective break below 1454, the long thesis is temporarily invalid. There is risk of further downside breaking below 1419 and testing 1323.
No holding positions through losses (no “bag carrying”). The uncertainty of the “head and tail” structure is extremely high—don’t blindly enter to bet. Stop-loss risk is relatively large.
Wishing everyone a great weekend. If you think what I wrote is decent, give me a 666.
