[September rate hike probability soars to 56% — is the Fed really about to act this time?🏛️📊]
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As soon as Fed Chair Warsh opened his mouth at Jackson Hole, he sounded hawkish
Market expectations flipped directly😳
Originally, in September, no action was expected
The odds were close to 70%
But now, CME rate futures show
A 25-basis-point hike jumps to 56%🔄
Actually, a month ago
Everyone still felt a rate hike was a sure thing
After the July employment data came out,
The odds quietly slid again📉
Then Warsh said just one thing:
Inflation hasn’t truly improved yet
And that reset expectations to the max again
The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries
also surged to the highest level since late July📈
His logic is very straightforward:
If inflation hasn’t been brought down, keep hiking
Good data isn’t enough
Only improving trends count🔨
This has a big impact on the crypto market
A strong dollar + higher U.S. Treasury yields
means risk assets have to take pressure
And highly volatile assets like Bitcoin
are the most sensitive😬
We’ll know on September 16
Whether rates are raised or not
and the market will need to shake off uncertainty first 👀
For crypto traders
Every rate decision is a major exam
And this expectation flip
is worth watching even more than the up-or-down move itself📌
📌 The probability of a September rate hike has skyrocketed from nearly zero to a 50-50 situation. The Fed meeting is the biggest variable right now—watch U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar closely.
➕ Join the fan group for trading insights!🔥 Every day, I’ll help you understand crypto market hotspots and institutional capital flows, in the simplest way—so you can seize the next opportunity!🚀
#比特币 #美联储 #宏观 #美债
Click the profile picture to get more information
As soon as Fed Chair Warsh opened his mouth at Jackson Hole, he sounded hawkish
Market expectations flipped directly😳
Originally, in September, no action was expected
The odds were close to 70%
But now, CME rate futures show
A 25-basis-point hike jumps to 56%🔄
Actually, a month ago
Everyone still felt a rate hike was a sure thing
After the July employment data came out,
The odds quietly slid again📉
Then Warsh said just one thing:
Inflation hasn’t truly improved yet
And that reset expectations to the max again
The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries
also surged to the highest level since late July📈
His logic is very straightforward:
If inflation hasn’t been brought down, keep hiking
Good data isn’t enough
Only improving trends count🔨
This has a big impact on the crypto market
A strong dollar + higher U.S. Treasury yields
means risk assets have to take pressure
And highly volatile assets like Bitcoin
are the most sensitive😬
We’ll know on September 16
Whether rates are raised or not
and the market will need to shake off uncertainty first 👀
For crypto traders
Every rate decision is a major exam
And this expectation flip
is worth watching even more than the up-or-down move itself📌
📌 The probability of a September rate hike has skyrocketed from nearly zero to a 50-50 situation. The Fed meeting is the biggest variable right now—watch U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar closely.
➕ Join the fan group for trading insights!🔥 Every day, I’ll help you understand crypto market hotspots and institutional capital flows, in the simplest way—so you can seize the next opportunity!🚀
#比特币 #美联储 #宏观 #美债