$BTC 9 Whether interest rates will be raised in September depends entirely on the two report cards: nonfarm payrolls and CPI
Waller’s recent remarks were relatively hawkish. He did not explicitly say that a rate hike in September is guaranteed, but he repeatedly stressed that bringing down inflation is the top priority, and his tone was tougher than the market expected
The market was immediately moved by this, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September jumping from 30% to 50%. It is now a coin toss, hanging in the balance
However, nothing is set in stone yet. The next two key data releases will decide it: nonfarm employment and CPI inflation data
The Fed is now making decisions based on data. If employment remains weak, expectations for a September rate hike will cool quickly; if inflation still stays high, then a rate hike is very likely to happen
👉Actual impact: rising expectations for a rate hike are bearish for stocks and cryptocurrencies, while the U.S. dollar tends to strengthen; if employment data later comes in far worse than expected, rate hike expectations will be pushed back down, and the market trend will reverse
#比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元 #提词员付17万美元和解内幕交易案
Waller’s recent remarks were relatively hawkish. He did not explicitly say that a rate hike in September is guaranteed, but he repeatedly stressed that bringing down inflation is the top priority, and his tone was tougher than the market expected
The market was immediately moved by this, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September jumping from 30% to 50%. It is now a coin toss, hanging in the balance
However, nothing is set in stone yet. The next two key data releases will decide it: nonfarm employment and CPI inflation data
The Fed is now making decisions based on data. If employment remains weak, expectations for a September rate hike will cool quickly; if inflation still stays high, then a rate hike is very likely to happen
👉Actual impact: rising expectations for a rate hike are bearish for stocks and cryptocurrencies, while the U.S. dollar tends to strengthen; if employment data later comes in far worse than expected, rate hike expectations will be pushed back down, and the market trend will reverse
#比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元 #提词员付17万美元和解内幕交易案
