At 10:00 PM on August 28, Beijing time—Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Wosh, stepped up to the podium and said a few words.
Four hours later, global markets had evaporated by $2.3 trillion.
What about Bitcoin? Right before the speech, it had just touched $81,455—an hour later, $76,877.
It’s not that Bitcoin isn’t good; it’s because Wosh said one thing—
“We still have work to do.”
This is the closest phrase to “preparing to raise rates” in the Fed’s official language.
Probability of a rate hike in September: 35.4% → 55.7%
Just a 30-minute speech.
The day before, the market was still betting on “no change.” After Wosh finished, it jumped by 20 percentage points.
Since taking office, he’s followed the “say less is best” approach—cutting forward guidance,缩紧政策声明 (tightening policy statements), and refusing to provide a path for interest rates. The market has grown accustomed to his ambiguity.
But this time, he wasn’t ambiguous.
PCE inflation: 12-month 3.7%, six-month annualized 4.1%—still a long way from 2%. Wosh said directly: you can’t wait.
Even harsher: “I find it very difficult to describe broad financial conditions as sufficiently restrictive.”
With rates where they are now, they’re simply not tight enough. There’s room for additional hikes.
What does the market fear most? Not rate hikes—uncertainty.
If you give a clear rate-hike path, the market can price it in, hedge it, and run.
If you give nothing, the market can only liquidate in panic.
What are we trading this year?
Last year, we traded “rate-cut expectations.”
This year, we’re trading “whether a rate hike will come.”
The direction is different, but the core has never changed—macro narratives are always the primary driver of Bitcoin’s short-term volatility.
No matter how many support levels you draw, no matter how many candlestick patterns you look at, no matter how many wave counts you tally—
one sentence from Wosh, and it all gets smashed through.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net inflows for eight straight days, totaling $2.8 billion. In August, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $3.0 billion—its strongest month so far in 2026.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw liquidations of $452 million, including $360 million in long liquidations.
Institutions are picking up the chips, while leveraged longs are getting liquidated.
After Wosh weakened forward guidance, the market lost its anchor. Going forward, every CPI print and every nonfarm payrolls release will trigger sharp swings.
The chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Wosh, stepped up to the podium and said a few words.
Four hours later, global markets had evaporated by $2.3 trillion.
What about Bitcoin? Right before the speech, it had just touched $81,455—an hour later, $76,877.
It’s not that Bitcoin isn’t good; it’s because Wosh said one thing—
“We still have work to do.”
This is the closest phrase to “preparing to raise rates” in the Fed’s official language.
Probability of a rate hike in September: 35.4% → 55.7%
Just a 30-minute speech.
The day before, the market was still betting on “no change.” After Wosh finished, it jumped by 20 percentage points.
Since taking office, he’s followed the “say less is best” approach—cutting forward guidance,缩紧政策声明 (tightening policy statements), and refusing to provide a path for interest rates. The market has grown accustomed to his ambiguity.
But this time, he wasn’t ambiguous.
PCE inflation: 12-month 3.7%, six-month annualized 4.1%—still a long way from 2%. Wosh said directly: you can’t wait.
Even harsher: “I find it very difficult to describe broad financial conditions as sufficiently restrictive.”
With rates where they are now, they’re simply not tight enough. There’s room for additional hikes.
What does the market fear most? Not rate hikes—uncertainty.
If you give a clear rate-hike path, the market can price it in, hedge it, and run.
If you give nothing, the market can only liquidate in panic.
What are we trading this year?
Last year, we traded “rate-cut expectations.”
This year, we’re trading “whether a rate hike will come.”
The direction is different, but the core has never changed—macro narratives are always the primary driver of Bitcoin’s short-term volatility.
No matter how many support levels you draw, no matter how many candlestick patterns you look at, no matter how many wave counts you tally—
one sentence from Wosh, and it all gets smashed through.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net inflows for eight straight days, totaling $2.8 billion. In August, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $3.0 billion—its strongest month so far in 2026.
In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw liquidations of $452 million, including $360 million in long liquidations.
Institutions are picking up the chips, while leveraged longs are getting liquidated.
After Wosh weakened forward guidance, the market lost its anchor. Going forward, every CPI print and every nonfarm payrolls release will trigger sharp swings.
