Are there any brothers who understand macro well and can chat about it? Be professional—don’t just guess based on hunch.

I think the core logic behind this round of BTC’s move is that Bessent started using short-term debt to swap for long-term debt, giving the market an expectation of QE, so BTC and gold moved together.

So the question is: with PCE still sticky, how likely is it that the Fed will raise rates? And if it really does raise rates, would the logic behind this round of BTC’s rally be interrupted?

After all, the Fed’s job is to promote employment and control inflation, and rate hikes do make sense.

This macro backdrop is definitely a scenario I haven’t seen before: in the past, giant companies were often buyers of long-term treasuries, but now they’ve become suppliers of them, directly squeezing the space for U.S. Treasuries.

At the heart of it all is that old question again: how high can the U.S. really tolerate long-term interest rates? If the government can’t hold up, will the Fed eventually become the last buyer of long-term treasuries?

I just don’t get it—I really don’t 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️