đ¨[Quick Review] Fed Chairâs one sentence makes BTC drop $3,000âwas the market overreacting?
On August 28 at Jackson Hole, the newly appointed Fed Chair, Waller, delivered his debut speech: progress on inflation is limited, he abandoned forward guidance, and indicated that a rate hike may happen in September. Within one hour, BTC plunged from 81,500 to 78,000, with total liquidations of $369 million. ETH lost $2,500, and BlackRockâs ETF saw a daily outflow of $168.5 million.
âď¸ What bulls think:
Good news was already priced in. The market has long known Waller is hawkish; this âshockâ looks more like a short-term shakeout of positioning. BlackRock just said BTC is rising because of U.S. fiscal riskâwhen rate-hike expectations are stronger, the dollarâs credibility worsens, and BTCâs macro-hedging logic becomes even more convincing. Historically, after every macro panic selloff, steadfast holders have always ended up laughing last.
đť What bears think:
By abandoning forward guidance, uncertainty becomes the norm, and the discount in the valuation of risk assets may keep widening. The $300+ million liquidation signals leverage is still too high, and deleveraging hasnât finished. ETF outflows are not coming from retail investors, but from institutionsâwhen institutions âvote with their feet,â donât rush to catch the knife.
đ¤ Overreaction?
Looking at the data: one speech triggered a $3,000 drop plus $369 million in liquidationsâyes, there is reason to suspect an overshoot. But the market in the Powell era has been trained to rely on forward guidance. When Waller suddenly doesnât âspoilerâ the path ahead, a fear premium is reasonable. The real risk is not this $3,000 dropâit's that if September really brings a rate hike, the market may not have fully priced it in yet.
đŹ What do you think about this selloff?
A. Itâs overshotâtime to buy the dip
B. Itâs just getting startedâdonât catch the knife
C. It has nothing to do with the macroâon-chain data matters more
$BTC #ĺ ĺŻć°éť #Blue Eucalyptus vs. Bird of Letting Go
On August 28 at Jackson Hole, the newly appointed Fed Chair, Waller, delivered his debut speech: progress on inflation is limited, he abandoned forward guidance, and indicated that a rate hike may happen in September. Within one hour, BTC plunged from 81,500 to 78,000, with total liquidations of $369 million. ETH lost $2,500, and BlackRockâs ETF saw a daily outflow of $168.5 million.
âď¸ What bulls think:
Good news was already priced in. The market has long known Waller is hawkish; this âshockâ looks more like a short-term shakeout of positioning. BlackRock just said BTC is rising because of U.S. fiscal riskâwhen rate-hike expectations are stronger, the dollarâs credibility worsens, and BTCâs macro-hedging logic becomes even more convincing. Historically, after every macro panic selloff, steadfast holders have always ended up laughing last.
đť What bears think:
By abandoning forward guidance, uncertainty becomes the norm, and the discount in the valuation of risk assets may keep widening. The $300+ million liquidation signals leverage is still too high, and deleveraging hasnât finished. ETF outflows are not coming from retail investors, but from institutionsâwhen institutions âvote with their feet,â donât rush to catch the knife.
đ¤ Overreaction?
Looking at the data: one speech triggered a $3,000 drop plus $369 million in liquidationsâyes, there is reason to suspect an overshoot. But the market in the Powell era has been trained to rely on forward guidance. When Waller suddenly doesnât âspoilerâ the path ahead, a fear premium is reasonable. The real risk is not this $3,000 dropâit's that if September really brings a rate hike, the market may not have fully priced it in yet.
đŹ What do you think about this selloff?
A. Itâs overshotâtime to buy the dip
B. Itâs just getting startedâdonât catch the knife
C. It has nothing to do with the macroâon-chain data matters more
$BTC #ĺ ĺŻć°éť #Blue Eucalyptus vs. Bird of Letting Go