(Jiangfeng Trading Strategy Journal) Episode 35
Last night, the Federal Reserve Chair, Worsh, made hawkish remarks, which caused the Bitcoin price to keep dropping, down to around 768,500. This also accelerated our third-fourth episode view of short take-profit targets at 80,800–81,500 and 2,515–2,600. The first targets at 78,000 and 2,400 have already been completed.
Last night, Worsh emphasized:
Inflation remains too high. In the near term, while CPI and PCE have improved somewhat, it is still not enough to prove that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target.
If inflation can’t fall fast enough, the Fed may still tighten policy further—even raise rates. He clearly stated that the Fed still has work to do.
Wass has stopped giving the market clear forward guidance. Going forward, policy will rely even more on economic data. After the remarks, market expectations for a September rate hike jumped sharply from 36% to around 60%. The yield on the 2-year US Treasury also quickly moved up to about 4.2%, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to around 4.72%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield climbed to around 5.19%.
On Friday, Bitcoin ETF inflows ended a streak of 9 consecutive days and reversed into net outflows of 201.9 million, setting a new record for the highest single-day net outflow in nearly two weeks
Recently, we need to focus on the key long-vs-short pivot levels for Bitcoin around 76,000 and for Ethereum around 2,400. If this area is effectively broken, it may bring another round of adjustment. So if you are firmly bullish and believe the bull market has already started, pay close attention to these two levels.
In reality, Jiangfeng still leans toward the market first experiencing a period of deep pullback and adjustment before starting a new round of upward move. But judging purely from the chart, the trend still looks relatively strong. As long as it has not effectively broken below 76,000 and 2,400, and rebounds have trouble holding up, the bulls’ trend still has the edge. Therefore, in recent trading, no matter whether you are long or short, you need to control your position size—don’t blindly go heavy!
In the short term, resistance around 79,300, resistance around 80,800, and resistance around 81,500 are key. In extreme cases, 82,600 is the main resistance. If you also think there will be a deep pullback, you can try setting up short positions at these levels. Stop-loss should be controlled above 82,600. Targets to watch are around 77,000～76,000～74,500～72,000～70,000.
For Ethereum, watch resistance above at around 2,485～2,535～2,600. In extreme cases, around 2,680. If you also believe there will be a deep pullback, you can try setting up short positions at these levels, but remember to participate with a light position size. Stop-loss should be placed above 2,680. If you can’t accept a wide stop-loss, reduce your position size before participating. Targets are around 2,400～2,300～2,250～2,050～1,950.
⚠️: The downward targets may not all be reached. The target positions are basically near support levels below. Therefore, for shorts, it’s recommended to take profit in batches once the price reaches the targets, lock in breakeven, and then place the next bet!
If you are firmly bullish, you can try one more long setup with a light position size around 76,000 and around 2,400, with a small stop-loss for the trade. The targets to watch are the entry points for the shorts above—take profit in batches. I hope everyone treats the above views rationally. The market will never offer absolute certainty. Every time we act, we’re only placing our bet at key levels. So no matter how you trade, you should make decisions after careful thought—not blindly follow the crowd!
⚠️: All the entry/exit points above may have a position deviation: BTC: ±100, ETH: ±5 points. Whether you insist on being bullish or bearish, remember to trade with light positions and always set your stop-loss properly! Wishing everyone successful trading!
Written by: Jiangfeng Capital
#比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元 #美国短期国债收益率上涨 $BTC
