At the recently concluded Jackson Hole central bank annual conference, Federal Reserve official Waller delivered a sharply hawkish speech, reiterating the need to push inflation back to the 2% target, which quickly triggered a major repricing across global financial markets. According to the latest research note from Deutsche Bank, the Fed may be forced to raise rates by 25 basis points in both September and December; CME data shows that the probability in the market for cumulative rate hikes of at least 50 basis points by year-end surged from 29% on the previous day to 51%. Meanwhile, Allianz Chief Economist Mohamed El-Erian noted that the U.S. Treasury yield curve is flattening rapidly: the spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries has narrowed by about 7 basis points, and the spread between the 2-year and 30-year has narrowed by about 10 basis points. In addition, on August 28, Trump claimed that the U.S. has reached a control agreement with Venezuela regarding more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves, with multiple macro and geopolitical factors intertwining and accelerating.
The severity of this sequence of events lies in the fact that the optimistic narrative the market had previously formed around a shift to easier monetary policy has been completely shattered. Tightening signals released at key moments have forced institutional investors to broadly raise their terminal rate expectations; aside from a further collapse in economic data, the threshold for continued tightening in the near term has been pushed extremely high. The accelerated flattening of the yield curve is hardly a good sign—it not only reflects a sharp repricing of short-end interest rates in response to hawkish policy, but also mirrors deep market concerns about long-term economic pressure. On top of that, with the yen-to-U.S.-dollar exchange rate nearing the 160 level, potential settlement/liquidation risk from Japanese selling of U.S. Treasuries looms, meaning the global liquidity environment is facing multi-dimensional structural tightening.
Macro asset prices have already provided highly sensitive “safe-haven” feedback. Rising short-end U.S. Treasury yields have tightened dollar liquidity; the spot price of gold— a traditional safe-haven asset—plunged by 3% intraday to $4,463.24 per ounce. The holdings of the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR, fell by 4.279 tons on a single day, and commodity holdings showed clear divergence. Energy-related games under the election political cycle may attempt to suppress inflation expectations, but the increase in real financing costs has become the sword of Damocles hanging over capital markets. Under the dual squeeze of high interest rates and exchange-rate volatility, global liquidity is flowing back to core dollar assets, and risk appetite is being suppressed across the board.
For the crypto market, $BTC and mainstream altcoins face severe tests as liquidity ebbs. With macro risk-free rates staying elevated and the probability of further rate hikes rising again, the willingness of incremental capital from outside the market to enter has been directly curtailed, and sentiment toward stablecoin supply and leveraged funds has grown more cautious. If the Fed delivers the hawkish rate-hike path as expected in September, risk assets may undergo another round of valuation downgrades driven by liquidity outflows. Even if policy remains on hold, ongoing withdrawal of U.S. Treasury liquidity and continued geopolitical disruptions mean the crypto market lacks strong one-way upside momentum in the short term; investors should be highly alert to the downside volatility risks triggered by liquidity tightening.📉
#美联储 #宏观经济 #Liquidity
The severity of this sequence of events lies in the fact that the optimistic narrative the market had previously formed around a shift to easier monetary policy has been completely shattered. Tightening signals released at key moments have forced institutional investors to broadly raise their terminal rate expectations; aside from a further collapse in economic data, the threshold for continued tightening in the near term has been pushed extremely high. The accelerated flattening of the yield curve is hardly a good sign—it not only reflects a sharp repricing of short-end interest rates in response to hawkish policy, but also mirrors deep market concerns about long-term economic pressure. On top of that, with the yen-to-U.S.-dollar exchange rate nearing the 160 level, potential settlement/liquidation risk from Japanese selling of U.S. Treasuries looms, meaning the global liquidity environment is facing multi-dimensional structural tightening.
Macro asset prices have already provided highly sensitive “safe-haven” feedback. Rising short-end U.S. Treasury yields have tightened dollar liquidity; the spot price of gold— a traditional safe-haven asset—plunged by 3% intraday to $4,463.24 per ounce. The holdings of the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR, fell by 4.279 tons on a single day, and commodity holdings showed clear divergence. Energy-related games under the election political cycle may attempt to suppress inflation expectations, but the increase in real financing costs has become the sword of Damocles hanging over capital markets. Under the dual squeeze of high interest rates and exchange-rate volatility, global liquidity is flowing back to core dollar assets, and risk appetite is being suppressed across the board.
For the crypto market, $BTC and mainstream altcoins face severe tests as liquidity ebbs. With macro risk-free rates staying elevated and the probability of further rate hikes rising again, the willingness of incremental capital from outside the market to enter has been directly curtailed, and sentiment toward stablecoin supply and leveraged funds has grown more cautious. If the Fed delivers the hawkish rate-hike path as expected in September, risk assets may undergo another round of valuation downgrades driven by liquidity outflows. Even if policy remains on hold, ongoing withdrawal of U.S. Treasury liquidity and continued geopolitical disruptions mean the crypto market lacks strong one-way upside momentum in the short term; investors should be highly alert to the downside volatility risks triggered by liquidity tightening.📉
#美联储 #宏观经济 #Liquidity