XAG 66.6u looks like it has bottomed out, but the really dangerous part is something else: the price is getting hammered lower, yet the contract open interest actually increased by 9.6% in a single day. The lower it goes, the more people pile in—this isn’t a bottom; it’s leverage feeding the selloff fuel.
Account data is the most honest: globally, 76% of accounts are long, and even whale accounts are 76% long—everyone in the market is overwhelmingly bullish. But the price slid from 71.2 down to the 66.2 floor in a relentless downtrend. The deeper longs go, the more trapped they get. Fee rates hitting zero suggests everyone is numb in the trap, with no appetite to pay protection fees just to rotate positions.
Even more painful are the big holders’ moves: the whale long-to-short ratio is 1.76—yet over the last seven hours, the long positions have actually been reduced. The most heavily loaded players are starting to quietly pull back. The spot “buy-wall” looks thick; active buy orders also account for 55%. But between 66.3 and 66.7 it dragged sideways all morning without being able to lift higher.
I don’t think this is the bottom. 76% longs + open interest up 9.6% in one day + fee rates back to zero—this pile of leveraged long positions is a time bomb. Once the floor breaks, the stampede will happen far faster than the grinding decline. I’m short. I’ll admit I’m wrong when spot truly shows continuous large net inflows, open interest starts to drop, and price reclaims the upper side of the moving averages. #xag $XAG
Account data is the most honest: globally, 76% of accounts are long, and even whale accounts are 76% long—everyone in the market is overwhelmingly bullish. But the price slid from 71.2 down to the 66.2 floor in a relentless downtrend. The deeper longs go, the more trapped they get. Fee rates hitting zero suggests everyone is numb in the trap, with no appetite to pay protection fees just to rotate positions.
Even more painful are the big holders’ moves: the whale long-to-short ratio is 1.76—yet over the last seven hours, the long positions have actually been reduced. The most heavily loaded players are starting to quietly pull back. The spot “buy-wall” looks thick; active buy orders also account for 55%. But between 66.3 and 66.7 it dragged sideways all morning without being able to lift higher.
I don’t think this is the bottom. 76% longs + open interest up 9.6% in one day + fee rates back to zero—this pile of leveraged long positions is a time bomb. Once the floor breaks, the stampede will happen far faster than the grinding decline. I’m short. I’ll admit I’m wrong when spot truly shows continuous large net inflows, open interest starts to drop, and price reclaims the upper side of the moving averages. #xag $XAG
