The big bet had surged to 81,000 for a while recently. It relied on the Ministry of Finance keeping long-end interest rates pinned down, and the market thought money wasn’t that tight. $BTC
When Voish spoke up: inflation hasn’t cleared the bar, and financial conditions aren’t really tight either—still, the short end has to keep watching prices. In September, the rate hikes went from about 30% up to more than 50%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped first, and the dollar strengthened. The big bet offers no carry/interest; when the short end is lifted, holding costs rise. And since leverage is already stacked above 80,000, they first knocked it back to 77,000. Then we pre-judge where things go next. This isn’t the trend being over—it’s digestion after a false breakout.
76k–77k is the first support. If it holds, it will grind in the 76k–80k range.
If it breaks below 76k, the next stop is 75k.
If it can’t reclaim 80k, it’s just a rebound. Only after it re-establishes above 80k can it be considered strengthening again. If the data stays hot, first watch 76k, then 75k. If the data cools down, 77k can hold—and then we go back to test 80k.
These are my personal views—DYOR.
When Voish spoke up: inflation hasn’t cleared the bar, and financial conditions aren’t really tight either—still, the short end has to keep watching prices. In September, the rate hikes went from about 30% up to more than 50%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped first, and the dollar strengthened. The big bet offers no carry/interest; when the short end is lifted, holding costs rise. And since leverage is already stacked above 80,000, they first knocked it back to 77,000. Then we pre-judge where things go next. This isn’t the trend being over—it’s digestion after a false breakout.
76k–77k is the first support. If it holds, it will grind in the 76k–80k range.
If it breaks below 76k, the next stop is 75k.
If it can’t reclaim 80k, it’s just a rebound. Only after it re-establishes above 80k can it be considered strengthening again. If the data stays hot, first watch 76k, then 75k. If the data cools down, 77k can hold—and then we go back to test 80k.
These are my personal views—DYOR.
