If $BTC does not reflect this upward move over the next 40 days, then we may be looking at a structural shift in the market cycle — and for the first time in history, the cycle’s bottom could come in Q3 instead of Q4.

Personally? I don’t see a 35–40% downside probability within one month from the current levels. The chart doesn’t support this kind of sharp breakdown, and the broader macroeconomic picture doesn’t point to a clear wave of widespread capitulation.

Either we’re dealing with a range of re-accumulation before the next bullish wave, or we’ve already entered the early phase of a new cycle.

📌 What matters most now: if $BTC holds the last bottom and begins forming higher lows as the month-end approaches, that would be an important confirmation of the strength of the price structure.

There’s no real edge in opening sell positions against the upward momentum as long as the market structure remains intact.

⚠️ Size your positions according to your risk, stay patient, and let the chart prove the direction on its own.

💎 In the long run, discipline and patience are what create real accumulation.

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