September rate hike probability surges—does Bitcoin need to kick into a major drop? My view is very clear
Last night, the Fed’s speech landed, and $BTC was directly pressured and plunged. Many people have started to panic, thinking another round of selloff is coming—but we still can’t say the market has fully transitioned into a bearish trend.
The core of the entire speech was that they did not rule out starting a rate hike in September. They repeatedly emphasized that inflation is still too far from the 2% target, and that price stability is the priority. The current lending environment is not sufficient to rein in inflation. Driven by this hawkish message, the probability the market assigns to a September rate hike jumped straight to 60%, and BTC then took advantage of the move to dip toward the 77k area.
Just this single selloff isn’t enough to conclude that the trend has completely reversed. The support at the 200-day moving average around 75k is quite strong, and spot ETF institutional flows have not shown large-scale outflows. The rate-hike expectations are just being priced in by the market in advance—not a guarantee that the September hike will definitely be carried out.
To truly confirm that a downtrend has begun, you must see three types of signals at the same time: ETFs show large net outflows, Coinbase displays a clear discount, and the 7-day moving average of on-chain net profit/loss turns from positive to negative.
Although there’s short-term pressure for a pullback, a short-term “waterfall” selloff won’t come that quickly. If you want to watch these key indicators closely from the start, follow the latest read on the charts and trade levels in real time—join the chat room.
#美联储9月加息概率升至57%
Last night, the Fed’s speech landed, and $BTC was directly pressured and plunged. Many people have started to panic, thinking another round of selloff is coming—but we still can’t say the market has fully transitioned into a bearish trend.
The core of the entire speech was that they did not rule out starting a rate hike in September. They repeatedly emphasized that inflation is still too far from the 2% target, and that price stability is the priority. The current lending environment is not sufficient to rein in inflation. Driven by this hawkish message, the probability the market assigns to a September rate hike jumped straight to 60%, and BTC then took advantage of the move to dip toward the 77k area.
Just this single selloff isn’t enough to conclude that the trend has completely reversed. The support at the 200-day moving average around 75k is quite strong, and spot ETF institutional flows have not shown large-scale outflows. The rate-hike expectations are just being priced in by the market in advance—not a guarantee that the September hike will definitely be carried out.
To truly confirm that a downtrend has begun, you must see three types of signals at the same time: ETFs show large net outflows, Coinbase displays a clear discount, and the 7-day moving average of on-chain net profit/loss turns from positive to negative.
Although there’s short-term pressure for a pullback, a short-term “waterfall” selloff won’t come that quickly. If you want to watch these key indicators closely from the start, follow the latest read on the charts and trade levels in real time—join the chat room.
#美联储9月加息概率升至57%
