$HEMI Now it looks more like we're looking back at the last observation: back then, the divergence didn’t produce an answer, and the market moved into a structural observation phase. Over the last 24 hours it closed up +13.19%; over the most recent complete hour, it’s +0.91%. The direction isn’t that strong, but the hourly trading value is only 0.22 times the recent median—so the volume has clearly contracted.
Last time we said: “If price holds sideways and open interest doesn’t collapse, then the first pullback can be treated as a potential second leg; if open interest drops quickly, we interpret it as old positions exiting.” Looking back now, price is still high, but open interest hasn’t continued to increase too fast. Instead, volume has shrunk back to about the 20% level. In this setup, the conditions for continuation are: price puts volume back on and holds steady, and open interest increases in sync—showing that buyers are willing to come back. The invalidation signals are: price spikes high while open interest falls quickly, or volume continues to contract. In that case, it’s more likely that old positions are gradually exiting rather than new money entering.
I’m not pretending to be right with my predictions, and I’m not avoiding the possibility that the tape is weakening. What matters most right now isn’t to label this K-line—it’s to wait for the next divergence to provide evidence of either absorption or exiting.
Last time we said: “If price holds sideways and open interest doesn’t collapse, then the first pullback can be treated as a potential second leg; if open interest drops quickly, we interpret it as old positions exiting.” Looking back now, price is still high, but open interest hasn’t continued to increase too fast. Instead, volume has shrunk back to about the 20% level. In this setup, the conditions for continuation are: price puts volume back on and holds steady, and open interest increases in sync—showing that buyers are willing to come back. The invalidation signals are: price spikes high while open interest falls quickly, or volume continues to contract. In that case, it’s more likely that old positions are gradually exiting rather than new money entering.
I’m not pretending to be right with my predictions, and I’m not avoiding the possibility that the tape is weakening. What matters most right now isn’t to label this K-line—it’s to wait for the next divergence to provide evidence of either absorption or exiting.