SKHY Today the most worth watching isn’t the price—it’s the positioning. In the past 24 hours the price has basically moved sideways (-0.09%), but the contract open interest has evaporated by 9.86% in a day, dropping from 104 million to 93.6 million. The floating longs of 10 million were washed out, and the price still hasn’t let the moving average go. This is a washout, not distribution.
Funding rates have only been positive in 2 of the last 8 periods; now they’ve gone straight to zero. No one wants to pay for direction anymore, and the leverage premium has been squeezed dry. Who would take the bait at a time like this? The whales: the number of accounts shrank by 7.5% over 7 hours, while the long/short ratio increased to 1.21 and the long share rose to 54.7%—fewer participants but heavier positions; the floating float has concentrated into large hands. Retail is 50/50, so it’s not crowded.
The only noise is that active sell orders make up 53%, and the sell pressure on the order book is thicker by one level. But this round of selling pressure volume should have already run out: taker volume over 7 hours fell by 36%. Once the floating supply is cleared, funding returns to zero, and the whales add positions, my bias is long. If it pulls back to 160.4 and doesn’t break, I’ll enter; the first target is the prior high at 163.5.
View reversal: if it breaks below 160.4 with increased volume, or if the whale long/short ratio drops back below 1.1, it would indicate that the decrease in OI is distribution rather than absorption—then I’ll flip and short instead. #skhy $SKHY
Funding rates have only been positive in 2 of the last 8 periods; now they’ve gone straight to zero. No one wants to pay for direction anymore, and the leverage premium has been squeezed dry. Who would take the bait at a time like this? The whales: the number of accounts shrank by 7.5% over 7 hours, while the long/short ratio increased to 1.21 and the long share rose to 54.7%—fewer participants but heavier positions; the floating float has concentrated into large hands. Retail is 50/50, so it’s not crowded.
The only noise is that active sell orders make up 53%, and the sell pressure on the order book is thicker by one level. But this round of selling pressure volume should have already run out: taker volume over 7 hours fell by 36%. Once the floating supply is cleared, funding returns to zero, and the whales add positions, my bias is long. If it pulls back to 160.4 and doesn’t break, I’ll enter; the first target is the prior high at 163.5.
View reversal: if it breaks below 160.4 with increased volume, or if the whale long/short ratio drops back below 1.1, it would indicate that the decrease in OI is distribution rather than absorption—then I’ll flip and short instead. #skhy $SKHY
