Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet bottomed out, and the risk of further declines in the short term remains very high. The current price and trend (real-time data as of February 6, 2026) show that the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating sharply between $63,000 and $65,000, with a general decline of around 9%-12% over the past 24 hours, hitting a low of around $59,800 during the day (some exchanges show close to $60,000). From the historical high of around $126,000 in October of last year, it has retraced nearly 50%, entering a typical 'crypto winter' deep drop phase. The 24-hour trading volume is extremely high (over $120 billion to $140 billion), indicating panic selling and a large number of forced liquidations.
The global cryptocurrency market capitalization has evaporated significantly, Bitcoin's dominance remains, but altcoins have dropped even more severely.
Why do many people feel that 'it has bottomed'? Technically touching an important psychological level of $60,000, some indicators (such as extreme panic selling, record trading volume) have shown bottoming signals.
Some traders on X believe that $58,000-$60,000 is a short-term phase bottom, even calling for bottom fishing.
Historical bear market pullback patterns: this round has already exceeded the depth of previous rounds from the peak (76%-84%), some speculate that around 70% pullback (about $37,000-$40,000) may be the final bottom.
But most professional analysis and market signals indicate: the bottom has not been confirmed yet. Why hasn't it bottomed yet? Macro liquidity is extremely tight: U.S. Treasury QRA withdrawals, RRP balances nearing depletion, and significant pressure on U.S. Treasury auctions have led to indiscriminate selling of risk assets. Gold has also crashed to $4700+, indicating that this is not merely a cryptocurrency issue.
Institution and leverage liquidation: a large outflow of ETFs, margin calls, institutions are selling the most liquid assets (BTC + gold) to replenish their positions.
The U.S. dollar is strong (DXY surging): hawkish expectations (Waller possibly taking over the Federal Reserve) + liquidity contraction, negative for all high-risk assets.
Cycle position: many analyses believe this is the first half of the bear market, even the A wave decline has not ended. Historical bear markets often have multiple bottom tests and false rebounds.
Extreme predictions are still present: some voices see $40,000-$50,000 or even lower ($35,000 range), as a similar pattern in the last round continued to be cut in half.
The short-term outlook may be the most optimistic: panic bottom near $60,000 + increased volume, short-term rebound to $68,000-$72,000 (but it is likely a dead cat bounce).
Most pessimistic: continue to break down, the next support level is $55,000-$58,000, or even test $45,000-$50,000.
Most realistic: it is highly probable that it is still in a volatile bottoming phase, next week's U.S. Treasury auction results are key (bid-to-cover ratio, tail risk spread).
In summary, it is not the time to confirm the bottom now, but rather a stage of 'still bleeding'. True bottoming usually requires: extreme panic indicators + massive trading volume followed by a decrease in volume.
Macro liquidity has clearly eased (DXY falling, U.S. Treasury yields turning around).
Long-term cycle indicators (such as the 200-week moving average) are showing strong support.
If you are a long-term holder, consider building a position in batches below $60,000 (but don't go all in); if you are a short-term player, chasing shorts or longs now can easily lead to being double killed, it is recommended to wait for clearer signals before taking action. The cryptocurrency space is never short of 'bottom-fishing heroes', but those who often survive are those who are not in a hurry to become heroes. Calm observation and protecting your capital is the most important thing. DYOR, good luck!