Nvidia’s market value surged by $300 billion overnight, while TSMC rose only 0.41%.

This isn’t falling behind—it's just that the money hasn’t caught up yet. The real bottleneck for AI lies in CoWoS packaging, and among companies worldwide that can do this, TSMC essentially has the say.

Q2 net profit year over year surged +77%. Full-year revenue guidance was raised from +30% to +40%, with capital expenditures of $52–56 billion betting on advanced process technology. Moody’s upgraded its outlook to positive, while Counterpoint said the pure foundry market grew 29%.

However, Taiwan shares surged and then pulled back, with heavy selling pressure appearing at the high end. Some believe that foreign investors’ net short positions in the Taiwan index futures increased to 84,800 contracts (this data is yet to be verified), and disagreements are starting to grow.

A question that needs verification: if NVDA keeps rising, will TSMC be catching up, or has that already been priced in?