The new Fed chair can determine the success or failure of BTC. Breakout or momentum toward $80k today?
Neither of the two, and the asset sales since then arenโt really his doing.
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Primeiro ponto a destacar: essa alta nunca foi uma estratรฉgia do Fed.$BTC value rose from US$ 64k to US$ 80k after the announcement of the Treasury bond buyback program, and not because of any statement from the Fed. Therefore, the real question before the Jackson Hole meeting wasnโt whether the Fed would take a more aggressive or more lenient stance, but whether Warsh would signal the Fedโs support for the buyback program.
No. He went the other way.
#WarshSaysInflationIsFedTopFocus
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The headline thatโs driving the buzz is that he committed to the 2% goal and said he sees no change in the inflation trend, despite weaker PCE and CPI prints. A mildly conservative stance. The immediate reaction was modest, with stocks falling to under US$ 80,000 and short-term bond yields ticking up a bit.
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The part that really suffered from this was the continuation of the move. BTC is now around US$ 77,400, down more than 3%, parked exactly on the 50-week EMA, near US$ 77,250. This is the level analysts flagged as the one that needs to be defended to maintain the uptrendโand itโs being tested on the monthly close. This is positioning and profit-taking meeting a level, not a speech.
But the line nobody is quoting is the one that matters in the long run. Warsh said that forward guidance is โlong overdue to end.โ
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Think about the impact of that. For two decades, this specific talking point has been used so that Fed presidents can announce the next step. Warsh used his to say heโs not going to announce anything. Committed to discipline, not to a decision.
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If heโs speaking seriously, then the whole strategy of positioning for the Fed speech stops working. Fed events become low-impact information, and economic data becomes the only factor that matters. Worse for anyone trading off headlines, better for anyone trading off levels.$BTC
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So keep an eye on the monthly close and on US$ 77,250โnot on the podium ๐