XRP, this round: spot and futures are fighting—spot has seen the last 5 consecutive 15-minute candles with large net outflows totaling 25.7 million, with sell orders outweighing buys; on the futures side, the active buying volume surged 41.73% over seven hours, and the whales’ long/short positions also lifted by 16.4%, with the long position ratio rising above 70%. Money is leaving the spot market and being taken up in the futures market.
I stand on the spot side. In futures, open interest over the past 24 hours actually increased by 2.37% instead of dropping, yet the price still fell by nearly 3%. The shorts are pressing the price down while adding to positions—over the past four hours they have eaten 6 consecutive bearish candles, dropping 5.31%, and the daily chart printed one big bearish candle. Price is sitting at 1.3819 below the MA50 (1.40); every bounce back to the moving average gets hammered down again.
The “bottom-picking” money in futures has big guts, but this batch of contract longs are mostly taking positions on the opposite side of the shorts. Spot is withdrawing, while positions are rising. That +9% rally from the past seven days hasn’t fully played out yet— the more you catch, the lower the price slides.
So at this level, I’m short: enter on a rebound near 1.40 (MA50), set a stop-loss at 1.44, first target 1.357 (the three-day low). If it breaks, then look at 1.30.
When would I flip? If spot large orders turn from outflow to inflow, and price returns above 1.42 with increased volume, and the four-hour chart flips bullish—then the short thesis fails, and I’ll exit and go long. Until then, the downtrend isn’t finished. #xrp $XRP
I stand on the spot side. In futures, open interest over the past 24 hours actually increased by 2.37% instead of dropping, yet the price still fell by nearly 3%. The shorts are pressing the price down while adding to positions—over the past four hours they have eaten 6 consecutive bearish candles, dropping 5.31%, and the daily chart printed one big bearish candle. Price is sitting at 1.3819 below the MA50 (1.40); every bounce back to the moving average gets hammered down again.
The “bottom-picking” money in futures has big guts, but this batch of contract longs are mostly taking positions on the opposite side of the shorts. Spot is withdrawing, while positions are rising. That +9% rally from the past seven days hasn’t fully played out yet— the more you catch, the lower the price slides.
So at this level, I’m short: enter on a rebound near 1.40 (MA50), set a stop-loss at 1.44, first target 1.357 (the three-day low). If it breaks, then look at 1.30.
When would I flip? If spot large orders turn from outflow to inflow, and price returns above 1.42 with increased volume, and the four-hour chart flips bullish—then the short thesis fails, and I’ll exit and go long. Until then, the downtrend isn’t finished. #xrp $XRP
