The truly difficult part in the current market is not whether to judge a day’s rise or fall, but how to repair the effects left behind by last October’s “black swan,” and how to re-establish the pricing of assets.
Which assets need to be completely cleared out, which ones can survive this round of adjustment, and which ones will find fresh opportunities in the new cycle—these are the real problems the market must solve.
As I mentioned before, the framework I use to trade short-term trends has always been relatively simple:
Mid-term elections + repairing the black swan
The time window is getting closer, so when the market is at the bottom, I choose to go all in.
But after the market initially gains volume and then moves into consolidation, it’s actually pretty boring.
In the past few days, you probably feel something like this—especially with altcoins: they rise a bit, pull back a bit, rise again, and then pull back again.
This is not surprising.
This is the cycle.
From the first phase of increased volume until the bull market truly comes to an end often takes more than two years.
What does two years mean?
Enough time for countless things to happen—and for the market to experience at least three major rounds of adjustment.
So at some point in the future, even if Bitcoin returns to over forty thousand, it doesn’t necessarily mean the cycle has ended; likewise, today’s rally doesn’t mean the market will go straight up without interruption.
The real big行情 has never been a straight line. So there’s no need to be anxious about day-to-day gains or losses.
What you should really care about is whether you’ve understood the cycle—and where the next true opportunities will be.
A few percentage points up or down on a day is nothing at all when placed within a two-year cycle.
$BTC $ETH
Which assets need to be completely cleared out, which ones can survive this round of adjustment, and which ones will find fresh opportunities in the new cycle—these are the real problems the market must solve.
As I mentioned before, the framework I use to trade short-term trends has always been relatively simple:
Mid-term elections + repairing the black swan
The time window is getting closer, so when the market is at the bottom, I choose to go all in.
But after the market initially gains volume and then moves into consolidation, it’s actually pretty boring.
In the past few days, you probably feel something like this—especially with altcoins: they rise a bit, pull back a bit, rise again, and then pull back again.
This is not surprising.
This is the cycle.
From the first phase of increased volume until the bull market truly comes to an end often takes more than two years.
What does two years mean?
Enough time for countless things to happen—and for the market to experience at least three major rounds of adjustment.
So at some point in the future, even if Bitcoin returns to over forty thousand, it doesn’t necessarily mean the cycle has ended; likewise, today’s rally doesn’t mean the market will go straight up without interruption.
The real big行情 has never been a straight line. So there’s no need to be anxious about day-to-day gains or losses.
What you should really care about is whether you’ve understood the cycle—and where the next true opportunities will be.
A few percentage points up or down on a day is nothing at all when placed within a two-year cycle.
$BTC $ETH