In terms of the macro line, now it’s not in sync with risk assets; it’s in sync with “trading the rate-cut expectations.” At Jackson Hole, Warsh didn’t give guidance on the direction for September, so $BTC immediately vomited out the prior expectation premium. Spot is at 77408, down 3.24% over the past 24 hours, but futures volume traded up to 11.2 times spot—showing that control of the board is still in the hands of leveraged players.
At this point, the most dangerous thing isn’t the bearish news itself; it’s that everyone is still going long using the old narrative. Funding rate is still +0.01%, the longs haven’t fully released their grip, yet price has already pushed down to the vicinity of the intraday low near 76888. On my side, I didn’t chase a short. Above 77300, I only opened a 3% trial short; stop-loss at 78150, with an initial target of 76000. If, in the latter half of the US session, the order flow continues to be dominated by the bears, I’ll add another 2%.
Warsh didn’t say anything—if anything, it makes the market harder to trade because you can’t front-run the September move. This isn’t about arguing points; it’s about who admits they were wrong first. If you’re wrong, you’re out at -5%. Don’t overthink. $BTC #BTC
Those are my thoughts—your money is your choice.
At this point, the most dangerous thing isn’t the bearish news itself; it’s that everyone is still going long using the old narrative. Funding rate is still +0.01%, the longs haven’t fully released their grip, yet price has already pushed down to the vicinity of the intraday low near 76888. On my side, I didn’t chase a short. Above 77300, I only opened a 3% trial short; stop-loss at 78150, with an initial target of 76000. If, in the latter half of the US session, the order flow continues to be dominated by the bears, I’ll add another 2%.
Warsh didn’t say anything—if anything, it makes the market harder to trade because you can’t front-run the September move. This isn’t about arguing points; it’s about who admits they were wrong first. If you’re wrong, you’re out at -5%. Don’t overthink. $BTC #BTC
Those are my thoughts—your money is your choice.