Conclusion: The big pie is oscillating and slightly bearish.
The 4H medium-term moving averages are still bullish, but the recent swing highs and lows and volume have already weakened. The current price is testing key support, so it cannot yet be defined as one-way “bearish.”
4H structure
• Swing highs: 81,272.62 → 79,174.12 → 81,478.87. The higher timeframe still made a new high; however, after the spike, it quickly failed. Then on the 1H, it formed lower highs/lows of 79,999 → 79,770 → 79,839.
• Swing lows: 77,851 → 77,632 → 76,888. Recent lows have been moving down, and the short-term structure is bearish.
• Closed 4H EMA: EMA20 78,912.82, EMA50 76,748.07, EMA200 69,763.89. The EMA alignment is still bullish (EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200), but price has broken below EMA20 and is now about 1% above EMA50. This is a pullback within a bullish alignment.
• Recent candlesticks: It first spiked up to 81,478.87 and then pulled back, followed by two consecutive large bearish candles: 79,604→78,331 and 78,331→77,580. The second candle’s low was 76,888, with a lower wick, but the rebound strength is not strong.
• Trading volume: The last two bearish candles show about 5,428 BTC and 4,755 BTC, both clearly higher than the average volume of the previous 20+ candles (2,964 BTC). Selling with increasing volume is unfavorable for short-term bulls.
• Position in range: The last 20 closed 4H candles form a range of 76,888–81,478.87. The current price is around the 13% percentile of the range and is close to the bottom.
• 4H ATR(14): $1,130.34, about 1.46% of the current price. The last two bearish candles have amplitudes of roughly 1.35 ATR, indicating volatility is increasing.
Auxiliary timeframe: On 1H, EMA20 at 78,928.77 has crossed below EMA50 at 79,182.22, and price is below both, confirming short-term weakness. However, it is still near the 1H EMA200 at 76,769.93. On the daily timeframe, the closing price remains clearly above EMA20/EMA200 (about 72,047/72,030), so the medium-term uptrend backdrop has not been broken.
Key levels
• First support: 76,500–76,900 (4H EMA50, 1H EMA200, and the latest swing low).
• Second support: 75,500–75,800 (recent 4H swing low).
• Deep support: 71,000–72,500 (the recent breakout-retest zone, near the daily EMA20/200).
• First resistance: 78,900–79,200 (4H EMA20 and the resistance after breaking below it).
• Strong resistance: 79,800–80,300. Above that is 81,273–81,479.
If 4H reclaims and holds above 79,200, the weakness will ease significantly. If it breaks and holds above 81,500, then the current short-term bearish structure would be considered invalid. If the medium-term bullish structure breaks below 75,500, it would be materially damaged.
The 4H medium-term moving averages are still bullish, but the recent swing highs and lows and volume have already weakened. The current price is testing key support, so it cannot yet be defined as one-way “bearish.”
4H structure
• Swing highs: 81,272.62 → 79,174.12 → 81,478.87. The higher timeframe still made a new high; however, after the spike, it quickly failed. Then on the 1H, it formed lower highs/lows of 79,999 → 79,770 → 79,839.
• Swing lows: 77,851 → 77,632 → 76,888. Recent lows have been moving down, and the short-term structure is bearish.
• Closed 4H EMA: EMA20 78,912.82, EMA50 76,748.07, EMA200 69,763.89. The EMA alignment is still bullish (EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200), but price has broken below EMA20 and is now about 1% above EMA50. This is a pullback within a bullish alignment.
• Recent candlesticks: It first spiked up to 81,478.87 and then pulled back, followed by two consecutive large bearish candles: 79,604→78,331 and 78,331→77,580. The second candle’s low was 76,888, with a lower wick, but the rebound strength is not strong.
• Trading volume: The last two bearish candles show about 5,428 BTC and 4,755 BTC, both clearly higher than the average volume of the previous 20+ candles (2,964 BTC). Selling with increasing volume is unfavorable for short-term bulls.
• Position in range: The last 20 closed 4H candles form a range of 76,888–81,478.87. The current price is around the 13% percentile of the range and is close to the bottom.
• 4H ATR(14): $1,130.34, about 1.46% of the current price. The last two bearish candles have amplitudes of roughly 1.35 ATR, indicating volatility is increasing.
Auxiliary timeframe: On 1H, EMA20 at 78,928.77 has crossed below EMA50 at 79,182.22, and price is below both, confirming short-term weakness. However, it is still near the 1H EMA200 at 76,769.93. On the daily timeframe, the closing price remains clearly above EMA20/EMA200 (about 72,047/72,030), so the medium-term uptrend backdrop has not been broken.
Key levels
• First support: 76,500–76,900 (4H EMA50, 1H EMA200, and the latest swing low).
• Second support: 75,500–75,800 (recent 4H swing low).
• Deep support: 71,000–72,500 (the recent breakout-retest zone, near the daily EMA20/200).
• First resistance: 78,900–79,200 (4H EMA20 and the resistance after breaking below it).
• Strong resistance: 79,800–80,300. Above that is 81,273–81,479.
If 4H reclaims and holds above 79,200, the weakness will ease significantly. If it breaks and holds above 81,500, then the current short-term bearish structure would be considered invalid. If the medium-term bullish structure breaks below 75,500, it would be materially damaged.