Cut through the noise.
Fed path post-Jackson Hole? Market's pricing 1-2 hikes max over the next 16 months. 25bp each. That's it.
A year from now, odds still cluster between 3.75%-4.25%.
This isn't 2022. No aggressive hiking cycle. No 75bp shocks. No FOMC roulette every 6 weeks.
That's why Powell's speech won't move the needle. Markets can digest 1-2 small hikes. What kills rallies is uncertainty, not known policy.
Real alpha? Earnings and capex.
$NVDA. $MSFT. Memory sector. AI infrastructure spend.
That's what decides the next leg up or down. Not Jackson Hole theater.
Fed path post-Jackson Hole? Market's pricing 1-2 hikes max over the next 16 months. 25bp each. That's it.
A year from now, odds still cluster between 3.75%-4.25%.
This isn't 2022. No aggressive hiking cycle. No 75bp shocks. No FOMC roulette every 6 weeks.
That's why Powell's speech won't move the needle. Markets can digest 1-2 small hikes. What kills rallies is uncertainty, not known policy.
Real alpha? Earnings and capex.
$NVDA. $MSFT. Memory sector. AI infrastructure spend.
That's what decides the next leg up or down. Not Jackson Hole theater.
