According to the BBC, Western officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to avoid a direct military confrontation with Nato despite increasingly hostile rhetoric toward the UK and other allies over support for Ukraine. The officials said recent Russian warnings, including threats that UK forces could be targeted or that weapons factories could be hit, were not new and fit Moscow's doctrine of pressuring the West.

They said Russia is likely to keep using hybrid tactics such as cyber-attacks, sabotage and assassination attempts rather than direct military action. The officials also said the war in Ukraine has escalated this year, with both Moscow and Kyiv stepping up long-range strikes, while Russia continues to make slow gains in the eastern Donbas region and suffers heavy casualties. They said Russia is losing 6,000 more soldiers a month, killed or wounded, than it can recruit, but there is no sign yet that the Kremlin will resort to mass mobilisation.