🔥 More hawkish than Wosch Bullard? Will September rate hikes really be back!

I just stayed up late to watch Wosch’s debut speech at Jackson Hole, and it really has some substance 🤯

Institutional language-model analysis shows that this speech from Wosch is even more hawkish than Powell’s over the past few years. And it’s not a coincidence—it's fully consistent with his recent press conference, the meeting minutes, and his stance in congressional testimony.

What did Wosch say? Inflation is still too high, the economy remains resilient, and the financial conditions are nowhere near being “restrictive.” His exact words were: the “upside trend” in inflation has “not yet shown meaningful improvement,” and the Fed “still has work to do.” The 2% inflation target is “firmly committed to and cannot be changed.”

Even more intense: he directly said, “Standing here today, what I’m committing to is a kind of discipline, not a decision”—and he didn’t even provide forward guidance! The market blew up after hearing that: the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to nearly 60%. Gold plunged by $50, and U.S. Treasury yields moved higher.

Honestly, this “quiet Fed” approach from Wosch is even more hardline than what Powell did back then. If there is indeed a rate hike in September, BTC and the altcoins will face more pressure again 😅
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