花涧空

📢 Opinion｜$BTC Again Significantly Underperforms the Nasdaq—Will History Recreate an Independent Major Bull Run for the Third Time?

On August 30, analyst Rekt Fencer shared a BTC/Nasdaq 3-day ratio chart. Data shows that this ratio has experienced three deep drawdowns: ‑84.9% in 2018, ‑80.7% in 2022, and ‑54.3% in 2026 during this latest drawdown.

Looking back at history, after the first two instances in which Bitcoin fell behind the Nasdaq by such a large margin, BTC went on to deliver an independent strong uptrend that broke away from tech stocks, followed by a wave of intense upside momentum.

Now, as the ratio falls again into historically extreme ranges, many market observers believe that a bottoming area is drawing near. If historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin could shake off U.S. stocks and restart its own行情.
#比特币现货ETF结束9日净流入
#首笔抗量子比特币交易主网完成
⚠️For historical data review only; history does not indicate the future and does not constitute investment advice.

In a bear market, everyone likes to predict the lowest price for this round, $BTC . Let me take a shot at it too!
What do you think the bottom will be? Feel free to drop your thoughts in the comments!
Personally, I predict the extreme bottom for this round at 44000U📉
Three core points:

1. Technical Cycle: The high was 126,000, and a 65% golden retracement perfectly corresponds to the 44,000 range;

2. Miner Cost Hard Support⛏️: The shutdown price for mainstream S23 water-cooled miners is 44,000. This is the new generation computing power's bottom line; if it drops below this, many will shut down, leading to massive selling pressure; the older S21 miners at 69,000-74,000 will reduce output in advance to cushion the drop;

3. Capital Flow: The spot ETF continues to provide a floor, making it hard to replicate the deep crashes of previous years. After the panic selling clears in Q4, we may see a bottom⏳

This prediction is based solely on cycles and mining costs, and there could be black swan events in the market. This does not constitute investment advice; invest your spare change to maintain a calm mindset✨
Once we hit a price you consider suitable, you can start to accumulate! Gradually increase your position; if you keep waiting for the absolute lowest price, you might miss out on this round of opportunities!

⚠️ Crypto investments carry extremely high risks, so enter the market with caution.

✨ This is the strongest August for BTC in the past 10 years—the comeback battle was fought beautifully~

【Market Overview】
🟢 BTC’s August cumulative gain is +25.58%, the strongest August since 2017. It briefly touched an $81k high intraday, then pulled back, and is now consolidating around $78,325.
🟢 ETH is “getting its share” too, around $2,450—its weekly chart was once up about +30%. Institutional capital has clearly started rotating from BTC into ETH.
📊 Total global market cap is $2.63T. BTC dominance is 59.7%. The past 24h saw a small pullback of 2.6%, but overall it’s still a bull-market structure.$BTC
$ETH

✨✨✨✨✨

【Flows: Institutions are scrambling to accumulate】
💰 Net inflows into BTC spot ETFs are as high as $2.6 billion for the week. BlackRock’s IBIT alone pulled in $503 million in a single day—this kind of force can only come from large institutions.
💰 ETH ETF inflows are also strong. Coupled with the rotation in market share, the powder keg of alt-season has already been set.

✨✨✨✨✨

【Macro & Policy】
🏛️ At the Jackson Hole annual conference on August 28, Fed Chair Warsh talked about inflation and innovation. PCE is still stuck at 3.7%, so rate cuts aren’t coming that fast—but the market is still rallying.
📜 The momentum for the U.S. CLARITY Act is heating up. September is a key milestone. Policy-wise, sentiment is shifting from being suppressed by negative factors to a compliant narrative—this reversal in market mood is crucial.

✨✨✨✨✨

【Hot Sectors】
🔥 Top trending across the network: PONS, Seeker(SKR), Pump.fun(PUMP), HYPE, XMR are all blowing up.
🔥 The capital narrative is clearly shifting toward AI / RWA / DePIN. Alt rotations are accelerating—choosing the right sector matters more than stubbornly holding.
🐮 The BSC chain you often watch isn’t the main battleground this time. Mainstream capital is focused on the BTC/ETH camp and the AI narrative.

【Trading Suggestions】
🎯 August ran up too hard—be prepared for high-level consolidation and pullbacks in September. $75k is BTC’s first support; if it breaks, watch $72k.
🎯 Don’t chase. Wait for the pullback and then get in; ETH is relatively strong, so it’s worth focusing on.
🎯 Don’t blindly chase big money. The main storyline here is institutional narrative, not a “shitcoin” market. First secure your mainstream positioning.

⚠️The above is only a market recap and does not constitute investment advice
#比特币8月上涨23%跑赢黄金股市

Kefan

📢 Before the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data, the probability of the Fed cutting rates twice by year-end exceeds 50%

This Friday, the U.S. Non-Farm Employment data is about to be released and will become a key indicator shaping the core direction of the September rate decision. According to CME data, the market’s odds of two cumulative rate cuts by year-end have already surpassed 50%, and expectations for rate cuts are heating up significantly. (😏 modest positive)

Impact analysis: If employment weakens, it will pressure the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts, improving macro liquidity and lifting risk-asset pricing. As rate-cut expectations rise, the stronger outlook will weigh on the U.S. dollar, and funds are likely to flow toward high-volatility risk markets.

If the Non-Farm data comes in worse than expected, impact on the crypto market:
A significant miss versus expectations would further reinforce the market’s “rate-cut trade.” U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar would fall, while interest-rate-sensitive crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum could easily see a short-term spike higher. Major coins may benefit from a liquidity premium, lifting overall market risk appetite. However, it’s important to note that if the data is so weak that it reflects a serious risk of a hard economic downturn, risk-off sentiment may take the upper hand—causing crypto assets to pull back alongside U.S. stocks, resulting in the “good news turns into bad news” scenario. At the moment of the Non-Farm release, trading volatility will also surge sharply, making wick spiking and rapid back-and-forth scanning of positions relatively common.
$BTC

Potential investment opportunities: If the Non-Farm data is worse than expected, you could consider short-term trading opportunities in interest-rate-sensitive projects, and be sure to manage position sizing and stop-loss controls.

⚠️ Macroeconomic data is for reference only. Crypto assets are extremely volatile and this does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #非农就业数据

Trump Coin official denies launching any digital tokens, saying related reports are completely untrue, and attributes them to malicious third parties. After a tweet containing a contract address was deleted, the market value of the meme coin GOLD briefly reached $66 million. The team is working with relevant authorities to launch an investigation.

$TRUMP

📢 Bloomberg Chief Economist: Next week’s Nonfarm Payrolls data may be weak, and the probability of Fed rate hikes may decline

Hua Jian Kong Quick News: On August 29, Bloomberg Chief Economist Anna Wong said in an analysis that the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report next week carries risks of weakening, and there is even a possibility of recording negative employment growth. This data will directly influence the Fed’s subsequent monetary policy stance.

She noted that, looking back at the policy history of the modern Federal Reserve, there has not been an example of initiating rate hikes in a backdrop of consecutive two periods of negative nonfarm employment growth. If employment continues to cool, market expectations for the Fed to tighten monetary policy would likely fall noticeably.

Employment is the key benchmark the Fed uses to weigh interest rates. Weak nonfarm data may dampen expectations for U.S. Treasuries and a stronger U.S. dollar, indirectly providing sentiment support for risk assets. However, it’s also important to remember that inflation data remains an important constraint; it does not necessarily mean a shift toward easing. The market still needs to wait for the data to be released and validated.#美联储9月加息概率升至57%

⚠️ Information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.

📢 The biggest MeMe scam today! Be careful when entering high—go for meme coins at your own risk!

On August 29, according to monitoring by EmberCN, the Trump Digital Gold (GOLD) scam team sold all of its held GOLD tokens at around 2:00 PM today, totaling approximately 824.54 million tokens, accounting for 82.454% of the total token supply. The team reportedly profited about 9,784.6 SOL (about $1.01 million) in total.
It is said that GOLD was created on Solana today at 7:38. Through token allocations and buying after the token launched, the related addresses controlled more than 82% of the tokens. Around 9:00, an account for merchandise partnerships around Trump, @realtrumpcoins1, posted a tweet containing the GOLD contract address, and the token market value briefly surged to $66 million.
Around 11:48, the tweet was deleted
#SOL本周上涨20%