$XAU directly finds support at the daily low 4526 area, down nearly 3% over 24 hours; the 15-minute double moving averages are completely pressing down over the top. Price is falling, but the order book speaks even more clearly: the spot buy orders have dwindled to only one quarter of the sell side (32 vs. 134). Thick “wall-like” sell orders are pressing down, and there’s not a single net inflow from big spot orders.
What’s really worth dissecting is the futures. While price is making fresh lows, open interest over the past 7 hours actually rose instead of falling by 10.75%. The funding rate is still positive at 0.0062%. Whale accounts show 68% positioning as longs, and over the last 7 hours they also added 15%—the longs have not admitted defeat; they’re even catching the knife lower. Out of the six candles on the 4-hour chart, five closed bearish—any selling pressure has shown no sign of losing strength.
With the buy-side wall pulled away, yet the longs still stubbornly hold on—this doesn’t look like a bottom. It looks more like the sell-off hasn’t finished. I’m shorting from this level. After a break below 4526, I don’t expect meaningful support underneath. Targets are below 4468, with a stop-loss placed back above 4560.
The view needs to flip: wait until price regains 4560, and at the same time the spot buy orders once again exceed the sell orders on the book—then, and only then, can this leg of the decline be considered over. Don’t bet your life on the whales’ long positions.
#xau $XAU
What’s really worth dissecting is the futures. While price is making fresh lows, open interest over the past 7 hours actually rose instead of falling by 10.75%. The funding rate is still positive at 0.0062%. Whale accounts show 68% positioning as longs, and over the last 7 hours they also added 15%—the longs have not admitted defeat; they’re even catching the knife lower. Out of the six candles on the 4-hour chart, five closed bearish—any selling pressure has shown no sign of losing strength.
With the buy-side wall pulled away, yet the longs still stubbornly hold on—this doesn’t look like a bottom. It looks more like the sell-off hasn’t finished. I’m shorting from this level. After a break below 4526, I don’t expect meaningful support underneath. Targets are below 4468, with a stop-loss placed back above 4560.
The view needs to flip: wait until price regains 4560, and at the same time the spot buy orders once again exceed the sell orders on the book—then, and only then, can this leg of the decline be considered over. Don’t bet your life on the whales’ long positions.
#xau $XAU
