I got slapped in the face today.
Yesterday I assessed that the bulls might continue and test the 81000 resistance level—yet the daily chart opened higher then went straight into a selloff. The high reached 81479, and afterward it was hammered all the way down to 78313, closing down 2.32%. ⚠️ I got the direction right, but misjudged the magnitude. There wasn’t enough follow-through at the highs, and I underestimated the selling pressure from profit-takers.
Now let’s talk about the most important level today: around 78300.
This zone isn’t drawn arbitrarily. It’s the starting platform of this leg of the rally, and also today’s intraday low—where the bears ran into support. As long as the daily close holds above 78300, the bulls haven’t been eliminated yet. What happens here will determine whether the market consolidates over the next few days or pulls back deeper—more critical than any moving average.
RSI14 has fallen from the overbought zone 88 to 83, but it’s still rather hot. MA7 is at 78572; the current price 78386 is hugging the moving average, so the rhythm is fairly fragile. It’s not that you can’t trade—it’s that you need to be careful.
If 78300 holds, I lean toward going light on a long bet for a bounce toward 80000; if it fails to hold, I’ll wait to see whether 77000 can catch.
What are you planning to do today?
$BTC #BTC早报 #比特币 #Blue Elm vs. Letting-Go Bird
Yesterday I assessed that the bulls might continue and test the 81000 resistance level—yet the daily chart opened higher then went straight into a selloff. The high reached 81479, and afterward it was hammered all the way down to 78313, closing down 2.32%. ⚠️ I got the direction right, but misjudged the magnitude. There wasn’t enough follow-through at the highs, and I underestimated the selling pressure from profit-takers.
Now let’s talk about the most important level today: around 78300.
This zone isn’t drawn arbitrarily. It’s the starting platform of this leg of the rally, and also today’s intraday low—where the bears ran into support. As long as the daily close holds above 78300, the bulls haven’t been eliminated yet. What happens here will determine whether the market consolidates over the next few days or pulls back deeper—more critical than any moving average.
RSI14 has fallen from the overbought zone 88 to 83, but it’s still rather hot. MA7 is at 78572; the current price 78386 is hugging the moving average, so the rhythm is fairly fragile. It’s not that you can’t trade—it’s that you need to be careful.
If 78300 holds, I lean toward going light on a long bet for a bounce toward 80000; if it fails to hold, I’ll wait to see whether 77000 can catch.
What are you planning to do today?
$BTC #BTC早报 #比特币 #Blue Elm vs. Letting-Go Bird