🔥Big news! Waller’s debut sends hawkish signals; the yields on short- and long-term bonds diverge, and the whole market is set to reprice👀
At Jackson Hole, Waller’s initial remarks were even more hawkish than expected. Inflation has not materially eased, and the 2% target will not be compromised. He also left room for future rate hikes, and any fantasy of rate cuts this year is basically shattered.
The bond market put on a strange show: the yield on 2-year Treasuries rose to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield actually fell slightly, causing the yield curve to flatten quickly.
Short-end yields jumped, which signals higher risk of near-term rate hikes; long-end yields edged down, reflecting the market’s view that prolonged tight policy will eventually weigh on the U.S. forward economy.
✅ Outlook for different asset classes
1⃣️ Crypto: BTC
Near-term is a negative. With high rates persisting, valuations for risk assets come under pressure. The 80,000 BTC level is already in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and hawkish comments will likely intensify volatility.
But the positives aren’t fully over: the spot ETF continues to see steady inflows, which remains a fundamental support. In the short term, BTC will likely swing sharply; first test the 79,000–79,500 support zone. Don’t chase longs at high levels—prioritize avoiding leveraged positions.
2⃣️ ETH and smaller altcoins
ETH is closely linked to BTC and the 2,500 level is under pressure. Rotation among sector coins will likely accelerate. The AI computing and DePIN sectors have their own narratives and may show stronger resilience; pure MEME tokens without fundamentals face heavier selling pressure.
3⃣️ Gold
Near-term pressure. Expectations for rate hikes are rising; real yields are moving higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
However, long-end Treasury yields have not spiked. Combined with geopolitical risks acting as a floor, the probability of a deep drop is limited, and gold is more likely to enter a wide-range, sideways consolidation at high levels.
4⃣️ U.S. stocks
Growth tech is the most apparent downside area. Valuations of AI leaders like Nvidia are extremely sensitive to interest rates, and they are under pressure tonight.
Meanwhile, defensive sectors are relatively more resilient. The market is rapidly adjusting from easing expectations, and near-term downside risk for the indexes increases.
Market summary:
This time isn’t an extreme negative; it’s a delay in the easing narrative. Short-term market volatility is amplified, and choppiness is set to worsen.
Prudent strategy: reduce leverage, take some profits, and wait for the market to digest the hawkish shock before looking for a new entry window.
Do you think BTC can hold the 79,500 support?👇 Discuss in the comments!
#黄金8月上涨约14% #比特币 #以太坊ETF $BTC $ETH $XAU
At Jackson Hole, Waller’s initial remarks were even more hawkish than expected. Inflation has not materially eased, and the 2% target will not be compromised. He also left room for future rate hikes, and any fantasy of rate cuts this year is basically shattered.
The bond market put on a strange show: the yield on 2-year Treasuries rose to 4.28%, while the 30-year yield actually fell slightly, causing the yield curve to flatten quickly.
Short-end yields jumped, which signals higher risk of near-term rate hikes; long-end yields edged down, reflecting the market’s view that prolonged tight policy will eventually weigh on the U.S. forward economy.
✅ Outlook for different asset classes
1⃣️ Crypto: BTC
Near-term is a negative. With high rates persisting, valuations for risk assets come under pressure. The 80,000 BTC level is already in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and hawkish comments will likely intensify volatility.
But the positives aren’t fully over: the spot ETF continues to see steady inflows, which remains a fundamental support. In the short term, BTC will likely swing sharply; first test the 79,000–79,500 support zone. Don’t chase longs at high levels—prioritize avoiding leveraged positions.
2⃣️ ETH and smaller altcoins
ETH is closely linked to BTC and the 2,500 level is under pressure. Rotation among sector coins will likely accelerate. The AI computing and DePIN sectors have their own narratives and may show stronger resilience; pure MEME tokens without fundamentals face heavier selling pressure.
3⃣️ Gold
Near-term pressure. Expectations for rate hikes are rising; real yields are moving higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
However, long-end Treasury yields have not spiked. Combined with geopolitical risks acting as a floor, the probability of a deep drop is limited, and gold is more likely to enter a wide-range, sideways consolidation at high levels.
4⃣️ U.S. stocks
Growth tech is the most apparent downside area. Valuations of AI leaders like Nvidia are extremely sensitive to interest rates, and they are under pressure tonight.
Meanwhile, defensive sectors are relatively more resilient. The market is rapidly adjusting from easing expectations, and near-term downside risk for the indexes increases.
Market summary:
This time isn’t an extreme negative; it’s a delay in the easing narrative. Short-term market volatility is amplified, and choppiness is set to worsen.
Prudent strategy: reduce leverage, take some profits, and wait for the market to digest the hawkish shock before looking for a new entry window.
Do you think BTC can hold the 79,500 support?👇 Discuss in the comments!
#黄金8月上涨约14% #比特币 #以太坊ETF $BTC $ETH $XAU
