At the Jackson Hole annual symposium, the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish signal far stronger than market expectations. The official statement made it clear that the current financial conditions are in no way “restrictive.” Business investment and the labor market remain solid, and the progress toward bringing inflation back to the 2% target is nowhere near a convincing pace. This stance directly shattered the market’s previously overly optimistic hopes for rate cuts. The Fed even suggested that if inflation does not improve quickly, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
The bond market reacted swiftly and directly. Short-term U.S. Treasuries were sold off, with the yield on the 2-year note rising by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the yield on the 30-year note edged down by 1 basis point to 5.19%. The probability the market assigns to a rate hike in September has increased significantly. When a central bank explicitly places its inflation target ahead of economic easing—and believes that current borrowing costs are not truly restraining the economy—the reality that high rates will remain for longer becomes difficult to avoid.
For risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, the macro liquidity headwinds are intensifying. With funding costs staying high and the tightening cycle not yet truly over, risk assets such as $BTC will continue to face pressure from valuation compression and liquidity withdrawal. The risk of making blind bets on a policy pivot is rising sharply.
#美联储 #加息 #Inflation
The bond market reacted swiftly and directly. Short-term U.S. Treasuries were sold off, with the yield on the 2-year note rising by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the yield on the 30-year note edged down by 1 basis point to 5.19%. The probability the market assigns to a rate hike in September has increased significantly. When a central bank explicitly places its inflation target ahead of economic easing—and believes that current borrowing costs are not truly restraining the economy—the reality that high rates will remain for longer becomes difficult to avoid.
For risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, the macro liquidity headwinds are intensifying. With funding costs staying high and the tightening cycle not yet truly over, risk assets such as $BTC will continue to face pressure from valuation compression and liquidity withdrawal. The risk of making blind bets on a policy pivot is rising sharply.
#美联储 #加息 #Inflation