Encryption | Tomorrow’s Outlook | August 28
BTC suddenly dropped by 3,100 points. Everyone on the internet is saying “the bears are here,” but I’m actually thinking about catching the knife.
Brothers, when we do the evening recap, my heart just skipped a beat. BTC was dumped straight from 81,500 to 78,400. In 24 hours it fell 1.1%, and this long bearish candle is pretty ugly. But the more I stared at the order book, the more something felt off—does a drawdown of this kind really look like what a bear market should look like?
First, a few objective facts:
- BTC is currently at 79,380, with a high-low swing of 3,100 dollars—showing that bulls and bears are fighting fiercely around this range
- ETH also dropped to 2,504, but only -0.6%, following but without panic
- SOL fell even harder, -1.54% to 105.5, and the low reached 103.57
- BNB also broke down; the 703 level is a bit dangerous
Most major coins are down around 1%. This kind of synchronized decline—historically—has often been more like a shakeout than a trend reversal. Why? Because if the market were truly collapsing, high-beta coins like SOL should lead the drop by 5%+; they shouldn’t just slowly grind down by 1.5%.
Now let me go through a few of my observation systems:
1. In the top five gainers, everything is MEME and small-cap coins (Lobster +86%, HEMI +60%, LIGHT +33%). In an environment full of such “weird” coins, it suggests hot money hasn’t left—it’s just rotated out of the majors to play short-term.
2. In the 7-day momentum leaderboard, AKE is up 561%, KAITO up 50%, STAR up 46%—this isn’t the kind of profit effect you’d expect in a bear market.
3. In the slow-and-steady coin list, EUL scores 80, TAO 76, SUSDT 76. These are all targets that quietly keep rising—funds are quietly at work.
4. In the bottom-fishing hunters list, RECALL, TRUTH, and ALLO are all down 70–80% and have been consolidating at the bottom for dozens of days—someone is quietly accumulating.
My take: This drop looks more like an end-of-August repositioning shakeout. The main force intentionally smashes it down to make panic sellers hand over their positions. BTC’s key support is in the 78,000–78,400 range. If tomorrow it can hold, then in the last two days of August there’s a high chance it will pull back to reclaim and close the month’s candle.
Tomorrow’s strategy:
- A bullish bias, but only buy the dip—not chase pumps
- Buy in batches below 78,500. If it breaks below 77,500, recognize the mistake and exit
- Overhead resistance is 81,000–81,500. Once it reaches, reduce exposure
- Watch SOL’s support at 103. If it breaks, stay on the sidelines; if it doesn’t, it’s a strong consolidation
- ETH: hold off for now. 2,500 is a psychological line—if it breaks, then we’ll look for bearish setups
Event reminder:
Tomorrow is the last trading day of August—this is the battle for the monthly close. Big money won’t easily make aggressive moves while the monthly candle is still at risk of closing red. So the sell-off is actually something I see as an opportunity.
But I have to admit this: the market is always right. If tonight the U.S. stock market throws another curveball and BTC breaks below 78,000, I will cut losses rather than stubbornly hold. “Outlook” is just an outlook; live trading always respects what the chart tells us.
What do you think?
A. Buy the dip tomorrow BTC, then wait for the rebound at month-end
B. Keep watching, and only act once it holds above 80,000
C. Short it. If it breaks down, chase the short
Discuss your view in the comments—come back tomorrow for the answer when the market closes.
BTC suddenly dropped by 3,100 points. Everyone on the internet is saying “the bears are here,” but I’m actually thinking about catching the knife.
Brothers, when we do the evening recap, my heart just skipped a beat. BTC was dumped straight from 81,500 to 78,400. In 24 hours it fell 1.1%, and this long bearish candle is pretty ugly. But the more I stared at the order book, the more something felt off—does a drawdown of this kind really look like what a bear market should look like?
First, a few objective facts:
- BTC is currently at 79,380, with a high-low swing of 3,100 dollars—showing that bulls and bears are fighting fiercely around this range
- ETH also dropped to 2,504, but only -0.6%, following but without panic
- SOL fell even harder, -1.54% to 105.5, and the low reached 103.57
- BNB also broke down; the 703 level is a bit dangerous
Most major coins are down around 1%. This kind of synchronized decline—historically—has often been more like a shakeout than a trend reversal. Why? Because if the market were truly collapsing, high-beta coins like SOL should lead the drop by 5%+; they shouldn’t just slowly grind down by 1.5%.
Now let me go through a few of my observation systems:
1. In the top five gainers, everything is MEME and small-cap coins (Lobster +86%, HEMI +60%, LIGHT +33%). In an environment full of such “weird” coins, it suggests hot money hasn’t left—it’s just rotated out of the majors to play short-term.
2. In the 7-day momentum leaderboard, AKE is up 561%, KAITO up 50%, STAR up 46%—this isn’t the kind of profit effect you’d expect in a bear market.
3. In the slow-and-steady coin list, EUL scores 80, TAO 76, SUSDT 76. These are all targets that quietly keep rising—funds are quietly at work.
4. In the bottom-fishing hunters list, RECALL, TRUTH, and ALLO are all down 70–80% and have been consolidating at the bottom for dozens of days—someone is quietly accumulating.
My take: This drop looks more like an end-of-August repositioning shakeout. The main force intentionally smashes it down to make panic sellers hand over their positions. BTC’s key support is in the 78,000–78,400 range. If tomorrow it can hold, then in the last two days of August there’s a high chance it will pull back to reclaim and close the month’s candle.
Tomorrow’s strategy:
- A bullish bias, but only buy the dip—not chase pumps
- Buy in batches below 78,500. If it breaks below 77,500, recognize the mistake and exit
- Overhead resistance is 81,000–81,500. Once it reaches, reduce exposure
- Watch SOL’s support at 103. If it breaks, stay on the sidelines; if it doesn’t, it’s a strong consolidation
- ETH: hold off for now. 2,500 is a psychological line—if it breaks, then we’ll look for bearish setups
Event reminder:
Tomorrow is the last trading day of August—this is the battle for the monthly close. Big money won’t easily make aggressive moves while the monthly candle is still at risk of closing red. So the sell-off is actually something I see as an opportunity.
But I have to admit this: the market is always right. If tonight the U.S. stock market throws another curveball and BTC breaks below 78,000, I will cut losses rather than stubbornly hold. “Outlook” is just an outlook; live trading always respects what the chart tells us.
What do you think?
A. Buy the dip tomorrow BTC, then wait for the rebound at month-end
B. Keep watching, and only act once it holds above 80,000
C. Short it. If it breaks down, chase the short
Discuss your view in the comments—come back tomorrow for the answer when the market closes.