Longs have just finished one round of liquidation wash, and options above 80k have stacked into a wall
First, lay out tonight’s numbers—the conclusion is that leverage isn’t jammed, but if we have to say which side is heavier, it’s the upper side. After $BTC surged during the day past 81,478, it was pushed back to 79,470 now, down 0.82% over 24 hours. In the Deribit options market, bullish open interest at 80k totals 16,302 BTC. Calls clearly outweigh puts, and this wall likely won’t be flipped quickly.
What’s really worth watching is the past hour. In the last hour alone, OKX longs liquidated 10.53 million, while the shorts side had little movement. The price spiked down to 78,423 and was bought back immediately; the aggressive buying is also pressing against the sell orders. If price dips, someone comes in to buy—but it’s leveraged positions. This kind of order book is most afraid of a second leg down.
Fees are currently low. Around midnight they even briefly turned negative. Compared with just after 1, both long and short accounts aren’t crowded. Over the whole day, both sides took one round of hits: OKX shorts exploded 28.39 million over 24 hours, and longs exploded 22.04 million.
There are only two situations where squeezing is easy: (1) price stands above 80k on increasing volume and burns through the call stack, forcing shorts to cover; (2) a break below 78,423 triggers a chain reaction of leveraged positions among the buyers, and that’s when you get the acceleration phase. The condition under which this outlook becomes invalid is 78,423 losing support.
#Leverage
#Liquidation
#Bitcoin
First, lay out tonight’s numbers—the conclusion is that leverage isn’t jammed, but if we have to say which side is heavier, it’s the upper side. After $BTC surged during the day past 81,478, it was pushed back to 79,470 now, down 0.82% over 24 hours. In the Deribit options market, bullish open interest at 80k totals 16,302 BTC. Calls clearly outweigh puts, and this wall likely won’t be flipped quickly.
What’s really worth watching is the past hour. In the last hour alone, OKX longs liquidated 10.53 million, while the shorts side had little movement. The price spiked down to 78,423 and was bought back immediately; the aggressive buying is also pressing against the sell orders. If price dips, someone comes in to buy—but it’s leveraged positions. This kind of order book is most afraid of a second leg down.
Fees are currently low. Around midnight they even briefly turned negative. Compared with just after 1, both long and short accounts aren’t crowded. Over the whole day, both sides took one round of hits: OKX shorts exploded 28.39 million over 24 hours, and longs exploded 22.04 million.
There are only two situations where squeezing is easy: (1) price stands above 80k on increasing volume and burns through the call stack, forcing shorts to cover; (2) a break below 78,423 triggers a chain reaction of leveraged positions among the buyers, and that’s when you get the acceleration phase. The condition under which this outlook becomes invalid is 78,423 losing support.
#Leverage
#Liquidation
#Bitcoin
